Good afternoon! While my first semester just ended, college basketball sure isn't going anywhere. I do regret to inform all of you however, that our beloved teams from mid-major and low-major conferences with a fighting chance at an at-large bid faltered this Thursday. I'll be sure to talk about their path forward here.
Saint Louis
The Bilikens are the only team on this list from a consistent multi-bid conference in the Atlantic 10, but their at-large hopes, like many of the other teams that lost on Thursday, were also fringe. They posted a 2-4 record against the top 2 quads (1-2 against both Q1 and Q2), with those 2 wins coming in overtime at Boise State and by 1 at home against Iona. Save for the home tilt against Auburn, all of their other Q2+ opportunities have come against borderline tournament teams at best, featuring losses at Dayton and Memphis and at home to UAB and Belmont.
Still, this kind of resume keeps them in the conversation, especially without a bad loss to their name. However, that changed when they suffered a 91-85 defeat at UMass, going into the books as a Q3 loss. Saint Louis barely clings onto a top-75 NET ranking, and would really benefit from getting a quality road win at Davidson or St. Bonaventure (whose NET ranking of 96 does not do them justice whatsoever). I don't think the Bilikens can afford another bad loss, and they should also look to take care of business in their other Q2 games coming up against George Mason, Richmond, Rhode Island, and Dayton. It's still possible, but it'll surely be an uphill battle.
Oakland
When I say anyone with a chance at an at-large bid, I'm being pretty liberal because we still have several weeks of college ball to play before Selection Sunday. The Oakland Golden Grizzlies have quietly amassed a solid resume with a win at Oklahoma State, who would probably be in serious at-large consideration were it not for their postseason ban. This one-point win alone (saving them from an 0-4 mark against Quad 1) isn't enough, but Oakland also took care of business in their Quad 2 contests: a home shellacking of Toledo (which looks better after they destroyed Ohio yesterday, a team who also had a case for an at-large bid) and a neutral court victory over Vermont. A one-point loss at Bowling Green was the only blemish on the Golden Grizzlies' resume until the 88-78 defeat at the hands of Milwaukee, whose 295 NET ranking qualifies the contest as a Quad 4 loss. This unsurprisingly pushed Oakland outside the top 75 in the NET. With almost every game going forward in the Horizon falling under Q4, it might officially be auto-bid or bust for the Golden Grizzlies.
Belmont
While the rest of the Ohio Valley isn't exactly up to par, Belmont and Murray State provided the conference with a rare glimpse at two potential at-large caliber teams. With wins at Saint Louis and on a neutral court against Iona, Belmont appeared to be slightly better positioned of the two. That changed when Murray St. came into Nashville and thrashed the Bruins 82-60. I still would've said Belmont was on the right side of the bubble with a 3-4 record against the top two quads and no bad losses, but that gets trickier with their Thursday loss at Morehead State. It only qualifies as a Q2 defeat, so it's not the worst loss. That being said, however, it's one of the only opportunities for a somewhat decent win in conference, so that game at Murray State is going to matter. To make it as an at-large team, they'll need to win the rematch against the Racers and/or hope that Morehead State makes its way into the top 100 so that the Bruins can nab another Quad 2 victory in the conference tournament before, in all likelihood, meeting Murray St. in the OVC final.
Grand Canyon
The first of two WAC teams to talk about today, the Antelopes put themselves on the map after ending San Francisco's undefeated run in Phoenix (technically a neutral court game still). They lost their other Quad 1 matchup, at home against Wyoming and had a bad loss at Arizona state, but they still had a marquee victory and a chance to pick up a few more Q2 wins in conference play. On Thursday, they got annihilated by 155th-ranked Stephen F. Austin in Nacogdoches, whose performance bumped their NET ranking up to 133 and counting the contest as a Quad 2 defeat at the moment. They still have opportunities at New Mexico State and Utah Valley coming up, but with their 58-56 loss at Sam Houston that happened just now, they may have slipped from the edge of at-large relevancy.
New Mexico State
Thursday was just a bad day for the WAC. Even with an ugly Quad 4 loss at home to New Mexico, the Aggies still boasted a 2-1 record against Quad 1, including a neutral court victory over Davidson that looks better each day. Their profile was a lot more impressive than many people gave it credit for, and then they got the doors blown off of them by Sam Houston. The 71-46 result marks the same score by which Stephen F. Austin beat Grand Canyon, and I thought it was a glitch at first in the ESPN app. New Mexico State will need to make the most of their remaining Q2 opportunities at Utah Valley, Grand Canyon, and Seattle in order to prove that their bad losses are flukes. The 72-58 win today at Stephen F. Austin is a good start and they'll need to keep it up if they wish to make back the 28 spots they fell following the destruction at the hands of the Bearkats. I think there's a scenario where the Aggies manage to squeak in the field as an at-large, but their margin for error is almost zero.
