Final Bracketology

I made one change: I moved VCU out of the tournament because they had no quality road wins and their best win was vs Dayton. Also they had two sub-100 losses, including one sub-200 loss.

               East                               Midwest                          West                                  South    

1: Villanova                                  Kansas                         Gonzaga                        North Carolina    

2: Baylor                                        Duke                        Arizona                            Kentucky

3: Butler                                        Oregon                     Florida State                        UCLA                   

4: West Virginia                            Louisville                 Notre Dame                         Florida              

5: Virginia                                      Purdue                     Iowa State                            SMU          

6: Wisconsin                                  Cincinnati               Michigan                              Minnesota          

7: St. Mary's                                  Creighton                Maryland                             Miami                

8: Dayton                                      Arkansas                  Virginia Tech                    Wichita State   

9: Oklahoma State                        Seton Hall               South Carolina                  Northwestern      

10: Vanderbilt                               Xavier                       Marquette                        Michigan State 

11: Middle Tennessee                   Kansas State             Rhode Island                  Providence/Wake

12: Princeton                          UNC Wilmington           USC/Syracuse                   Nevada              

13: Vermont                               Bucknell                      ETSU                               New Mexico St.     

14: Northern Kentucky                 Iona                            FGCU                              Winthrop    

15: Texas Southern                       Kent State                  North Dakota                    NC Central        

16: MSM/UC Davis                SDSU/New Orleans           Troy                             Jacksonville St.         

First Four Out: VCU, Iowa, Illinois Alabama  

Next Out: Illinois, TCU

Selection Sunday is Finally Here

Hello everyone! Yesterday, or Selection Sunday Eve, saw the most automatic bids punched to the NCAA tournament. With so many championship games happening, this bracket saw a lot of movement, but no team with at-large potential has moved in or out of my updated bracket. I will post later today, and hopefully with regions for each team.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Arizona, Kentucky, Duke, Baylor
3: UCLA, Florida State, Oregon, Butler
4: West Virginia, Florida, Louisville, Notre Dame
5: Purdue, Iowa State, Virginia, Cincinnati
6: Minnesota, SMU, Wisconsin, Creighton
7: Michigan, St. Mary's Maryland, Miami
8: Wichita State, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Dayton
9: Oklahoma State, Seton Hall, South Carolina, Northwestern
10: Marquette, Michigan State, VCU, Vanderbilt
11: Xavier, Middle Tennessee, Kansas State, Wake Forest/Providence
12: Nevada, Rhode Island/Syracuse, UNC Wilmington, Princeton
13: Vermont, Bucknell, East Tennessee State, New Mexico State
14: Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona Northern Kentucky
15: Texas Southern, Kent State, Texas State, North Dakota
16: Jacksonville State, North Carolina Central, New Orleans/South Dakota State, UC Davis/Mount St. Mary's
First Four Out: USC, Iowa, Alabama, Illinois
Next Out: Illinois State, TCU

Updated Bracket and the Mid-major Bubble

Hello everyone! Today's slate of games brought many changes in the bracket, including the top few seed lines and bubble hopefuls. There were a lot of games with great tournament implications, including three teams falling who were the #1 seed in their respective conference tournaments.

Bracketology Seeding list:

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga

2: Kentucky, Oregon, Baylor, UCLA

3: Duke,  Arizona, Florida State, Butler

4: West Virginia, Florida, Louisville, Notre Dame,

5:  Purdue, Minnesota, Virginia, Cincinnati

6: Iowa State, SMU, St. Mary's, Creighton

7: Wisconsin, Maryland, Miami, Michigan

8: Virginia Tech, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Dayton

9: Arkansas, Seton Hall, Northwestern, South Carolina

10: Marquette, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, VCU

11: Xavier, Middle Tennessee, Providence, Kansas State/Wake Forest

12: Rhode Island/Syracuse, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, UT Arlington

13: Princeton, Vermont, Bucknell, East Tennessee State

14: Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Akron, CSU Bakersfield

15: Iona, Northern Kentucky, Texas Southern, UC Irvine

16: Jacksonville State, South Dakota State, North Carolina Central/North Dakota, Mount St. Mary's/New Orleans
First Four Out: USC, Georgia, Iowa, Houston
Next Four Out: Illinois, Illinois State, TCU, California

Bid Thieves?
Normally, champ week is subject to one or two teams known as "bid thieves" that shock the top teams, win the conference tournament, and make the bubble shrink. Usually coming out of mid-major conferences, these teams are generally solid but not at-large worthy. Last year Northern Iowa was the lone bid thieve, yet Iona and Gonzaga could've been a part of that category. However, this year doesn't seem like there are any potential bid thieves, but there could be one if the NCAA tournament worthy team(s) falter in their conference tourney. For example, Marshall could be a bid thieve if they upset Middle Tennessee in the C-USA tournament final, as the Blue Raiders have a solid enough resume that a loss shouldn't take them out of the bracket. Their resume includes a 4-1 record against the top 100, a neutral court win over UNC Wilmington, a blowout victory over Vanderbilt, and road wins over Belmont and Ole Miss. The Sun Belt could also have a bid thieve, but UT Arlington's resume top to bottom makes it extremely difficult to put them in as an at large bid, for they will have four bad losses should they lose in the Sun Belt tourney. Finally, Nevada makes an interesting case for an at-large bid. If Colorado State/San Diego State defeats the Wolfpack in the finals, or Fresno State can knock them off in the semis, Nevada will at least be looked at by the committee on Selection Sunday. Despite no top-50 victories, they do boast 8 wins vs the top-100, which is more than USC or Cal, and the same as Wake Forest. The Wofpack have also proven their ability to win on the road against decent opponents and have avoided bad losses for the most part. I'm not saying it will happen, but if a team like Colorado State wins the Mountain West tournament, don't be surprised if there are multiple teams in the mountain west that will hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

Living on the Edge

Hello everyone! With most bubble teams playing today, we saw some movement among the bottom of the bracket. Some of these changes were large, but most of them are minor tweaks to the bracket. It was an overall solid day for the bubble, as most teams either locked up a bid or survived against their opponent. Since a few bubble teams got upsets, there was also some movement among the top seeds.

Let's Lock 'em Up
A few teams locked up their NCAA tournament bid today, with some being more dramatic and surprising than others. Northwestern simply had to avoid a bad loss, and that they did in their blowout of Rutgers. No matter what happens against Maryland, this Wildcats squad should finally hear its name called on Selection Sunday. Michigan State annihilated Penn State, and Vanderbilt handily defeated Texas A&M, making them almost a lock, as long as the committee doesn't focus on their sub-200 loss to Missouri. Finally, Xavier will very likely make the tournament despite a six-game losing streak. Had they lost today, they would be firmly on the bubble because that would've meant they hadn't beat a Big East opponent not named DePaul in over a month. However, Xavier upset Butler as the 7 seed, and speaking of 7 will make the Big East a 7-bid conference.

Survive and Advance
Teams on the bubble or slightly below the cut line need to get a quality win in the conference tournament to feel good about their NCAA tournament chances. Of course, these teams must beat the weaker teams in the tournament for the opportunity to get that resume building win. Some of these teams quite literally "survived." Georgia and California remain on the bubble fringe by narrowly escaping Tennessee and Utah respectively. Cal even failed to put away putrid Oregon State until the final minute. These teams will  play the top team in their conference to claim the signature win they've been trying to get all season. USC, after defeating lowly Washington, will have an opportunity against UCLA as I'm writing this now. In the Big Ten, Indiana has gotten itself back into the conversation by beating quality opponents, including a domination of fellow bubbler Iowa. That leaves the Hawkeyes to hope that they did enough to impress the committee, and that answer is most likely no. Illinois didn't do any better, as they followed a crushing loss at Rutgers with a 20-point loss to Michigan, putting the nail in the coffin for their tourney hopes. On the other hand, bubble teams in the Big 12 have helped themselves out greatly today. TCU and Kansas State improved their cases for and NCAA tournament berth. TCU has had heartbreak after heartbreak after heartbreak during the regular season, but they finally held on against top-ranked Kansas for the 85-82 victory. That win pushed them from completely out of it into my first four out. K-State, being my last team in, was nowhere near safe. They just beat Baylor for the second time away from home, and that will go a long way to getting the Big 12 a 6th team in the big dance.

Power Conference Tournaments Are Underway

Hello everyone! The major conference tournaments have started, and with that comes a swarm of games with tournament implications. Since it's the early rounds of these tournaments, there hasn't been any activity at the top lines of the bracket. However, the ACC tournament has so far had a few games with bubble implications. Here is my seeding list below as of March 8, 2017.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga

2: Baylor, UCLA, Kentucky, Oregon

3: Florida State, Butler, Arizona, West Virginia

4: Duke, Florida, Louisville, Purdue

5: Notre Dame, Virginia, Minnesota, Cincinatti

6: Iowa State, SMU, St. Mary's, Maryland

7: Creighton, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Miami

8: Dayton, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Wichita State

9: Michigan, Marquette, Arkansas, Seton Hall

10: Northwestern, Michigan State, VCU, Providence

11: Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, Xavier/Rhode Island

12: Syracuse/Kansas State, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, UT Arlington

13: Princeton, Vermont, Bucknell, Akron

14: Winthrop, East Tennessee State, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona

15: CSU Bakersfield, Northern Kentucky, Texas Southern, UC Irvine

16: Jacksonville State, South Dakota State, North Dakota/NC Central, Mount St. Mary's/New Orleans

First Four Out: Iowa, USC, Illinois, Georgia

Next Four Out: Clemson, Illinois State, Houston, Georgia Tech