Living on the Edge

Hello everyone! With most bubble teams playing today, we saw some movement among the bottom of the bracket. Some of these changes were large, but most of them are minor tweaks to the bracket. It was an overall solid day for the bubble, as most teams either locked up a bid or survived against their opponent. Since a few bubble teams got upsets, there was also some movement among the top seeds.

Let's Lock 'em Up
A few teams locked up their NCAA tournament bid today, with some being more dramatic and surprising than others. Northwestern simply had to avoid a bad loss, and that they did in their blowout of Rutgers. No matter what happens against Maryland, this Wildcats squad should finally hear its name called on Selection Sunday. Michigan State annihilated Penn State, and Vanderbilt handily defeated Texas A&M, making them almost a lock, as long as the committee doesn't focus on their sub-200 loss to Missouri. Finally, Xavier will very likely make the tournament despite a six-game losing streak. Had they lost today, they would be firmly on the bubble because that would've meant they hadn't beat a Big East opponent not named DePaul in over a month. However, Xavier upset Butler as the 7 seed, and speaking of 7 will make the Big East a 7-bid conference.

Survive and Advance
Teams on the bubble or slightly below the cut line need to get a quality win in the conference tournament to feel good about their NCAA tournament chances. Of course, these teams must beat the weaker teams in the tournament for the opportunity to get that resume building win. Some of these teams quite literally "survived." Georgia and California remain on the bubble fringe by narrowly escaping Tennessee and Utah respectively. Cal even failed to put away putrid Oregon State until the final minute. These teams will  play the top team in their conference to claim the signature win they've been trying to get all season. USC, after defeating lowly Washington, will have an opportunity against UCLA as I'm writing this now. In the Big Ten, Indiana has gotten itself back into the conversation by beating quality opponents, including a domination of fellow bubbler Iowa. That leaves the Hawkeyes to hope that they did enough to impress the committee, and that answer is most likely no. Illinois didn't do any better, as they followed a crushing loss at Rutgers with a 20-point loss to Michigan, putting the nail in the coffin for their tourney hopes. On the other hand, bubble teams in the Big 12 have helped themselves out greatly today. TCU and Kansas State improved their cases for and NCAA tournament berth. TCU has had heartbreak after heartbreak after heartbreak during the regular season, but they finally held on against top-ranked Kansas for the 85-82 victory. That win pushed them from completely out of it into my first four out. K-State, being my last team in, was nowhere near safe. They just beat Baylor for the second time away from home, and that will go a long way to getting the Big 12 a 6th team in the big dance.