Overdue Update on an Overtime Thriller

Hey everyone! This is going to be a bit different from my normal posts: a brief overview on what I've been watching in college basketball.

Wednesday evening, I decided to turn on the TV and see what was on. I flipped to a Big Ten ACC challenge game: NC State vs Nebraska. While not the most high-profile matchup, there were only a few minutes remaining in regulation and it was a tight contest. Might as well watch it out, right?

Boy was I glad I did.

After a couple tough (but correct) calls bounced NC State's way in regulation, we found ourselves in overtime. It honestly felt like the teams were trying to copy each other; they'd go cold for a few minutes, Nebraska would finally score, and then NC State would score just seconds after. I don't really have much else to say other than that these 4-OT games don't happen very often, so I'll cherish them when they come.

Tale of Two Sports

Ohio State Knocks Off New No. 1 Duke

We have reached the middle of the week! While college football fans may have been upset upon seeing Alabama ranked above Cincinnati in the CFP, Duke was upset by the unranked Ohio State Buckeyes, who may have avenged some of their own college football beef:

In a key rivalry game, Ohio State lost 42-27 to the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor. Their CFP hopes were effectively ended while Michigan took the No. 2 spot. Buckeyes fans set their eyes on basketball instead, starting off by packing Value City Arena on Tuesday night.

At first, the home crowd didn't seem to be of much help; Duke was rolling in the first half and took a double digit lead into the break. Paolo Banchero showed why he was a top recruit, but things slowly got away from the Blue Devils as the second half progressed.

Two things allowed the Buckeyes to comeback: defense and three-point shooting. Ohio State clamped up in the second half, only allowing 23 points and limiting them to a 22.6% field goal success rate after Duke made over half their buckets in the first 20 minutes. The Buckeyes also shot 40% from beyond the arc, propelled by one man: Cedric Russell. In 15 minutes off the bench, he dropped 12 points off the back of three 3-pointers, the last of which pulled the Buckeyes within 2 amidst their 12-0 run over the final four minutes of the game.

While Russell may have brought them back, it was E.J. Liddell who closed it out for Ohio State. He hit a pair of free throws to give them back the lead, shortly followed by a clutch jumper to put the Buckeyes up three with 16 seconds remaining. Ohio State should be ranked once again while Duke enjoyed being #1 and undefeated for a solid day or so. It'll be interesting to, in all likelihood, see Purdue atop the rankings for the time being among all the other bluebloods that roam college basketball.

Changing of the Guard

 Zags Go Down

I apologize for not getting this post out sooner; I was occupied with things to do, events to watch, and hours to drive for almost all of my waking energy this weekend. Without further ado, let's get into the game.

Duke edged out the Gonzaga Bulldogs 84-81 this Friday night. I anticipate the Blue Devils will claim the No. 1 ranking in the AP top 25, while Gonzaga falls anywhere between 3rd and 5th.

It was a back and forth contest throughout the entire night, but the ending few sequences exhibited why Duke came out victorious: they clamped down and played some lockdown defense when they had to. They forced the Bulldogs to commit 17 turnovers (5 blocks and 2 steals from Mark Williams alone), and a balanced scoring attacked from Banchero, Williams, and Moore resulted in a Duke win.

On Gonzaga's end, they definitely didn't shoot the three-ball like they normally do, posting a mark of just 6 for 21 (28.6%) from beyond the arc. Drew Timme also missed a couple late shots down low that he usually makes. Had those gone in, the Bulldogs wouldn't have been in a situation where they had no choice but to foul.

Either way, both teams showed that they are elite forces in the realm of college basketball. And one last thing: god damn does Chet Holmgren look like a stick out on the court.

Thanksgiving Weekend Update

Upset of the Year?

Good evening! I hope you all are enjoying Thanksgiving break. While football may have stolen the show on Thursday, let's not forget about the other days of the week. We have some games to talk about:

Wild Finish in Orlando

The ending of Kansas vs. Dayton at the ESPN Events Invitational was genuinely not scriptable. I'm still in utter shock that such a shot could fall. What kind of arc did Mustapha Anzil put on that shot? Regardless, the Flyers showed a lot of grit in this game, albeit aided by some poor free throw shooting from the Kansas Jayhawks (9-20). Not to be overlooked is a well-called timeout by Dayton's coach Anthony Grant. After Kansas went on a 12-2 run to go up 73-70, Grant got his team doing what worked: playing more physical ball and working the paint. Dayton drew a tough offensive foul on Kansas' final possession, leading to the prayer that gave them the victory (Seriously, how did that go in?).

In the meantime, I'm currently watching Gonzaga duke it out with the Blue Devils (definitely an unintended pun), and it's been everything you can ask for in a contest between two bluebloods. Duke is certainly giving the Zags far more of a game than UCLA could provide, and I'll be sure to offer my thoughts on the match tomorrow when it's all said and done.

Power Conference Looking Weak

 Big Tendencies to Lose

In my last post, I already covered Seton Hall's upset victory over the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor. However, the Big Ten's ranked teams haven't stopped losing yet. Today, I'll be discussing three more teams in this conference that suffered unexpected defeats in their recent contests.

#10 Illinois 66 - 67 Marquette

A 12-point lead with just under 10 minutes remaining eventually narrowed down to a wild finish in Milwaukee. With the help of two clutch steals in the final minute by Tyler Kolek (also made the go-ahead layup) and Kur Kuath, the Golden Eagles eked out a one-point victory against the Fighting Illini. This result suggests that Illinois may not be in the same stratosphere as they were last season, but is more so the foundations of conference hierarchy as a whole: the Big East is stronger than the Big Ten. Shaka Smart has also done an impressive job so far in his first year with Marquette, already silencing expectations to finish 9th in the Big East with wins over Illinois and West Virginia. This will be a solid tournament team.

#20 Maryland 66 - 71 George Mason

This game was weird. I can't help but feel like Maryland was controlling the tempo for much of the game (at least in the second half). There were too many possessions where Mark Turgeon's Terps stifled George Mason for almost the entire shot clock for the Patriots to come away with a bucket at the very end. That being said, it was an inefficient night for Eric Ayala (6-17), and Maryland just could not muster up a stop when they needed to. Josh Oduro's experience came in clutch for George Mason time and time again with clutch baskets down low. While Maryland will almost certainly fall out of the top 25, it'll be interesting to see how George Mason and the Atlantic 10 perform down the stretch.

#19 Ohio State 65 - 71 Xavier

Third time's the charm for this Buckeyes squad: as in they lost to the third Ohio opponent they faced. After a nail biter over Akron and a blowout against Bowling Green, it was the Musketeers who finally took Ohio State Down. E.J. Liddell kept them in the game despite playing through 3 fouls for a significant portion of the contest, but Xavier was always a step ahead. While the Musketeers didn't shoot well from beyond the arc (5-24), they spread the floor and were extremely effective at creating shots for the team as a whole. I'm most definitely excited to watch the Big East this season with all the competition that looks to be present in this conference.

A Couple of Notable Upsets

Top Teams Taken Down 

A week of college basketball is officially in the books! With a relatively static first week of the season, last night saw a couple teams stake their claim in the 2021-22 season, building their resume early with some marquee non-conference victories:

Seton Hall

Projected as a bubble team, the Pirates nabbed what is one of the most impressive wins to date for any team: a road win over the 6th-ranked Michigan Wolverines. Seton Hall trailed for much of the second half, but were in a virtual deadlock for the final few minutes. The Pirates found themselves up 2 when Terrance Williams drew a foul with 0.8 left in regulation, but fortunately for Seton Hall, he missed the first free throw and accidentally banked the second in. The theme in this game was bench scoring; while the Wolverines only had 9 points total off the bench, Seton Hall had 37 (including 13 apiece from Tray Johnson and Bryce Aiken). Michigan should be fine. They just need the season to mature with their young squad. Seton Hall, however, has the ability to cement themselves as a Big East contender.

BYU

This team is also seen as a bubble team at the onset of this young season. While their win over the #12 Oregon Ducks in Portland isn't nearly as impressive as going into Ann Arbor and coming out victorious, you cannot overlook that margin of victory. 32 points! The Cougars just shot so much better, netting 59.6% from the field (40.9% from beyond the arc) compared to Oregon's measly 32.1% field goal success rate. Alex Barcello was absolutely fantastic tonight; he shot 9-11 for 25 points and used his agility to the fullest to get clean drives to the rim. This is a veteran BYU team that could finally see itself go deep into the NCAA Tournament this season.

Watching a Bit of Ball

Brief Look at the Trojans Victory

Tonight, I decided to put on some college basketball. I saw that the newly-ranked USC Trojans were in a competitive contest with one of our historical favorite Cinderellas, the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles. Throughout much of the second half, USC seemed a bit off; they were struggling from the floor to say the least. Luckily for them, FGCU wasn't able to capitalize nearly as much as they would've liked, and USC definitely benefitted off the second-chance buckets. It's no wonder that they pulled away later in the game as soon as their shooters got into form.

Opening Night Recap

 College Basketball Season Officially Underway

Hello everyone! I'm just as excited as anyone to finally see some college ball being played while the NFL still dominates Sundays. I've never followed the sport this early on into the season, so seeing teams dramatically change in perception on a game to game basis will take some getting used to. Without further ado, here are some of my thoughts on the opening night of the season:

Battle of Ohio Down to the Wire

Not many people were expecting it, but Akron came just a few ticks away from topping its in-state rival in the Ohio State Buckeyes. I'm not sure if the latter's #17 ranking will hold, but from watching the match, its tightness was more of a testament to how impressive the Zips played rather than a poor performance from Ohio State. Akron was playing some very composed basketball, and if not for a defensive breakdown on their final defensive possession, they'd have walked out of Columbus with a marquee victory. The Buckeyes did the minimum that they had to do last night; walk away with a win. They're going to need to prove themselves against Duke and/or Kentucky in their respective non-conference tilts (we'll talk about these two teams later) For Akron, however, prospects of claiming the automatic bid from the MAC already seem very plausible.

Top 25 Teams Mostly Clean House

While the preseason rankings should be taken with a huge grain of salt, almost of them did end up winning last night. Third-ranked Kansas comfortably defeated the Spartans in East Lansing, spreading the floor extremely well. Michigan State kept it within arms reach for much of the game, but the Jayhawks went on a huge run mid-way through the second half and Michigan State never recovered.

I didn't watch most of the other games, but some teams towards the lower end of the top 25 took some extra time to dispose of their opponent: St. Bonaventure let Siena stay in it for a half, as did Tennessee with UT Martin and Arkansas with Mercer. The Houston Cougars needed overtime to get past the CAA staple of Hofstra, and they would have walked away with an ugly blemish on their resume had Jamal Shead not intercepted an inbounds pass with 30 seconds left en route to a game-tying three.

The one elephant in the room is the 25th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers, suffering an unexpected home loss to Navy. They were sloppy with the ball all night long (14 turnovers) and couldn't recover from their early hole. Virginia gets a chance at redemption against the aforementioned Cougars in six days.

Coach K With a Swan Song Squad to Remember

I didn't watch the full game since I was extremely tired, but my god did Duke look good. This game was back and forth during the early portion of the second half, but the Blue Devils simply outpaced Kentucky during the contest and maintained a comfortable lead. While Paolo Banchero was productive despite playing through injury, the real star for Duke was Trevor Keels: with 25 points on 10/18 shooting, Keels dominated with clutch buckets time and time again. He was so effective at driving to the rim that Duke's measly 7.7% 3-point shooting percentage was hardly noticeable in this victory against the Wildcats. Mike Krzyzewski may have one last run to the final four before calling it quits.

AP Top 25 Preseason Released

Gonzaga Remains Atop the College Basketball World

It has been a while! However, we have just a couple weeks until collegiate men play some ball against other college-age men. I'll be honest that I don't really pay much attention to college ball during the off-season, so I thought I'd give an "outsider's" perspective on the pre-season rankings.

I really like seeing Gonzaga and UCLA in the top two slots. Their final-four matchup was an absolute classic and will be rewatchable for decades to come. Despite coming up just short of a perfect season last year, the Zags added top recruit Chet Holmgren (along with a few other studs), whose combination of size, mobility, and shot-blocking remains unparalleled.

The team the Bulldogs beat in that overtime thriller, the UCLA Bruins, are no slouch either. This historically successful squad retains Johnny Juzang, the NCAA tournament's top scorer, along with most of their starting lineup. UCLA really came out in the tournament, unleashing their potential that everyone knew they had. They also added Peyton Watson, and their rematch against Gonzaga will be the non-conference game to watch this season.

It seems that blue bloods have returned in full force to this preseason top 25. Recent juggernauts in Duke and Kentucky both missed out on the dance last year, but we see both of them rounding out the top 10. In terms of mid-majors, I wonder if Memphis will finally live up to the preseason expectations. They've been an NIT-level team two seasons in a row despite being projected solidly in the tourney. Maybe superstar forward Emoni Bates is the answer for this Tigers team that seems to consistently underperform as the season progresses.

I have a soft spot for mid-majors, so I'm hopeful that those ranked in and near the top 25 will actually live out their tournament dreams. These include the aforementioned Gonzaga and Memphis, but also fellow AAC powerhouse Houston, WCC sidekick in BYU, a couple A10 teams (St. Bonaventure and Richmond), and Colorado State joining San Diego State as another highly projected team out of the Mountain West. The Drake Bulldogs, who managed to squeak into the first four as an at-large out of the valley, also find themselves within the mix. I know I'll be looking out for these teams in particular to make a statement this season.

Reflecting on the Tournament + Update

 Two Weeks Later

    Good evening! I know that this is long overdue, but I believe that I should come around to it at some point, as well as hint at what may be to come for the future.

Where was I?

    Simply put, I had a lot of the regular teenage stuff to do: the third marking period was winding down, and like many virtual children, I wasn't exactly the most on top of my stuff. I had to grind pretty hard to end the quarter. More importantly, however, my grandma unexpectedly passed and we had to attend her funeral. And because of tradition, this meant that a solid week of my life was spent up in New York to mourn her death.

Finally Right For Once

    Throughout this tournament, I have (almost without fail) made unscientific predictions that made perfect sense in my head, but turned out to be completely wrong. When we got to the Final Four, this trend completely reversed. Not only was I correct with the entire Final Four, but I was also mostly correct with margins and who would cover the spread. I was rather surprised that UCLA pushed Gonzaga to overtime instead of losing by about 10, and that the Zags got outplayed so hard by Baylor, but after the Bulldogs cheated death in what will go down as an all time classic, I felt confident in my prediction that Baylor would take down the undefeated. The fact that the betting line was still Gonzaga -5 was a complete shock when it realistically should have been -1 or PK. If I was allowed to do sports betting, I would have certainly bet on Baylor to win against the spread, if not make a money-line bet in the Bears' favor.

Next Season?

    Don't worry. I am fully aware that I do not post consistently enough to be a reliable college basketball source. My posting has been sporadic at best, and only around the time that the NCAA Tournament is on the horizon or in full swing. I will be looking to change that this year and follow the sport more year round, going from scouting to pre-season rankings to early season projections. Of course, I will still be doing what I'm interested in the most, which is the bubble and the selection process. If I could keep this up semi consistently for several months, and get my bracket projections into The Bracket Matrix for the 2021-22 season, consider the first full year back from COVID a success.

We Have "Arrived" in Indianapolis

From Shock to Chalk

    Good afternoon everyone! It's been a bit since I last posted, wrapping up the second weekend of March Madness during my hiatus. With the final four commencing in just over an hour, it's time to reflect on how we got here and look ahead toward the future and see who could potentially be cutting down the nets on Monday night.

Sweet 16/Elite 8 Recap

    To put it nicely, my predictions weren't particularly accurate. The bottom two regions I had predicted completely wrong, anticipating Florida State, Alabama, Loyola Chicago, and Syracuse to all reach the Elite 8. I was never high on Michigan, so it didn't surprise me that they lost to whoever came out of Alabama vs UCLA, which happened to be the 11th-seeded Bruins. In other regions, Oral Roberts came oh so close to being the first ever 15-seed to reach the Elite 8, and Oregon State were almost the first 12-seed to get to the Final Four before falling flat in the last few minutes against Houston. I think for the most part, however, the second weekend was understandably relatively chalk due to the volatility of the first weekend. This is why we were so close to having three one seeds and a two seed in the final four, but the Wolverines could not make a shot to win the game.

Final Four Predictions

    My prediction is going to be pretty boring here, but I don't see how we don't arrive with a Gonzaga vs Baylor championship game when it's all said and done. Neither UCLA or Houston were exactly strong in their Elite 8 matchups, however the Bruins at least showed off some impressive defense. The Cougars have yet to play a team seeded better than 10th-seeded Rutgers, so the star-studded guards of Baylor will most likely be a wakeup call that Houston will not be prepared for. Expect the Bears to come out on top by double digits and cover the spread. Gonzaga may start off a bit slow against UCLA, but they have looked every bit the best team in the nation in this tournament. They should win by a sizable margin but might not cover the 14.5 point spread. 

For the finals between Gonzaga and Baylor, it'll be a matchup that we've been wanting to see ever since it got cancelled in early December. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the electrifying play of Baylor's guards will overpower the Zags, stopping Mark Few's squad one game short of a championship. As hard as it is to bet against the Bulldogs, I just don't see a team completing a perfect season in this era of basketball. Baylor have found their form after the COVID pause and if any team are to unseat perfect Gonzaga, it'll be the Bears.

Where we Head from Here

Later Round NCAA Tournament Predictions

    Good evening! Having observing one weekend of the NCAA Tournament already, it's safe to say that this wasn't an expected outcome at all with the highest total sum of the seeds ever seen in a sweet 16. Only 7 teams on the top 4 seed lines actually made it to the sweet 16, and the average seed in this year's sweet 16 was a lofty 5.875. Without further ado, I'll share who I think makes it out of each region.

West

Teams Remaining: No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 5 Creighton, No. 6 USC, No. 7 Oregon

    Boring as it may be, I just don't have a reason to go against the Zags. They're currently undefeated and have convincing wins both in the tournament and against top teams. I do think the winner of the Pac-12 showdown will give the Bulldogs a run for their money, but they won't quite be able to knock them out of the whole dance. In that game, I give the slight edge to the Ducks because I feel like they were better tested last round than USC. Both teams were dominant, but Kansas was still feeling the COVID pause, which makes Oregon's offensive throbbing the more impressive performance. Tack on that Dana Altman is a extremely solid coach, and I think he'll get his Ducks a trip to the elite 8.

South

Teams Remaining: No. 1 Baylor, No. 5 Villanova, No. 3 Arkansas, No. 15 Oral Roberts

    This is the region which I'm really uncertain about who will be advancing to April play. As the bottom matchup is easier to decide, I'll dissect that one first. Oral Roberts has been a phenomenal story, but the clock is about to strike midnight for this Cinderella. No team worse than a 12-seed has ever advanced past the sweet 16, and I have no reason to assume that streak will break here. The Hogs, while showing signs of vulnerability in the tourney thus far, have been great at closing out games. I predict that they'll close out yet another team in the sweet 16.

    Baylor vs. Villanova is a much trickier game to predict: before the tournament started, I would have gone with Baylor easily, but the Wildcats have managed to shine in the absence of Colin Gillespie. I thought they were going to lose to Winthrop, but they have convincingly won both of their games, as have the Bears. I do think that whoever wins this game will advance to the final four. While Villanova have exceeded expectations thus far, guard play wins out further into the tournament, and Baylor have among the best set of guards in the nation. I pick the Bears to advance out of the South.

Midwest

Teams Remaining: No. 8 Loyola Chicago, No. 12 Oregon State, No. 11 Syracuse, No. 2 Houston

    Oh how close we were to having a sweet 16 where the average seed in the region was a double digit. Had Rutgers not choked the final minutes against Houston, we'd be sitting in a sweet 16 where the eighth-seeded ramblers were the best seed remaining. With that out of the way, I'll go ahead and say that I believe the Syracuse Orange will come out of the Midwest region. I really don't know why I'm so confident in this Boeheim squad other than their past NCAA Tournament experience as a double digit seed. In 2016, Syracuse were the first team to reach the final four as a 10-seed, and made another run to the sweet 16 in 2018 as an 11-seed. I've still not completely bought into Houston, especially after a game that the Cougars arguably shouldn't have won. We can also point out the Sister Jean herself put Loyola in the elite 8, which I agree with after seeing their consistently strong performance in their victory over the Illini. The Beavers, on the other hand, came out of the round of 32 alive, but not without allowing the Cowboys to claw back into a game that appeared to be over. There has been a trend that the Pac-12 bid thieves make their way into the sweet 16, but the run always ends here. Anticipate the Orange taking down the Ramblers to reach another final four appearance.

East

Teams Remaining: No. 1 Michigan, No. 4 Florida State, No. 11 UCLA, No. 2 Alabama

    It still surprises me that of all the Big Ten teams to still be remaining in the tournament, it happens to be the vulnerable Livers-less Wolverines. LSU could have very easily won that game if they didn't take a few ill-advised shots. Michigan are still without their top scorer, and they will dearly miss that against a Seminoles team that dominated against a team from the overachieving Pac-12 in Colorado. Florida State will hold another team to under 60 points and continue their run to the elite 8. 

    On the bottom half of the east region, we have the 11th-seeded UCLA Bruins up against Alabama, the 2-seed. Both teams have looked quite solid, making it a bit difficult to choose this matchup. I'm tempted to roll with the Tide just because they've been better at closing out games throughout the season, though UCLA have been doing better during the tournament. I do think that whoever wins this game will eventually lose to Florida State in the elite 8, putting a second team from the ACC in the final four.

Final Four Predictions

1 Gonzaga vs. 4 Florida State

1 Baylor vs. 11 Syracuse

So that pretty much wraps up this unscientific prediction, and while I could predict the rest of the tournament from here, I'm simply going to take it one game (or in this case, two) at a time, just like how teams still playing will be doing. And feel free to flame me when these picks turn out to be completely incorrect.

Oh How the Mighty Have Fallen

 Several Powerhouse Teams Already Sent Packing

    There has been an unprecedented number of top teams that have already exited the NCAA Tournament. Today, I will be looking at teams in the top two seed lines who have suffered an early defeat. I want to see if we can find any common weaknesses in these teams or common strengths in the foes that knocked them out of the big dance.

Iowa (No. 2 West), Ohio State (No. 2 South), Illinois (No. 1 Midwest)

    I group these three teams together because all of them are Big Ten juggernauts who are among the top 8 overall teams. Briefly looking at Torvik's ranking page, there will be a lot of advanced statistics laid out in front of you. Naturally these teams would be at the top of most rankings, however all three of these teams really struggled in one category: defensive turnover efficiency. All three of these teams ranked outside the top 300 in this statistic, but what's interesting is that top-seeded Michigan also had a terrible defensive turnover rate, yet they advanced to the second weekend despite appearing more vulnerable than any team that was a top two seed.

Oregon (No. 7 West), Oral Roberts (No. 15 South), Loyola Chicago (No. 8 Midwest)

    There were a couple statistics that all three of these teams shared a similarly high ranking, both of which involving shooting percentage. All of these teams were among the top 65 in 3-point shooting percentage, and were more importantly inside the top 50 in effective field goal percentage. LSU, on the other hand, were ranked 74 in EFG% and 122 in 3P%. It seems as if the aforementioned teams took advantage of their opponents not being able to consistently force turnovers, and converted that into points with their impressive shooting percentage marks.

Catching up After the First Weekend of March Madness

A Little Insight Into My Imperfect Bracket

    What a first weekend of March Madness we witnessed! To anyone whose brackets are still alive and well (which there are not many of you), I wish you all good luck. My bracket has definitely not survived all of the madness with 3 of my 4 Final Four predictions having perished thus far. While I definitely did not pay as much attention to college basketball as I did last year (watched the day of Selection Sunday and looked at some team profiles using Bart Torvik's T-Rank Site), the "experts" couldn't explain some of these losses either. I thought I was going to have a genuinely solid bracket with the little research that I did, but as that has appeared to not be the case, I would like to take a look at what's happened so far and see if there are any trends among my catastrophically incorrect predictions

My one and only bracket for the 2021 NCAA Tournament

General Strategy:

    Obviously when making an unscientific bracket, gut comes first: it feels way worse to have a shitty bracket that came from someone else than if it comes from you. I started with who I wanted to make it out of each region because picking a common team to make the final four has much better yield than successfully predicting whatever cinderellas happen to make it out of the round of 64. I went slightly chalkier than your typical bracket because I have no chance of correctly predicting it all, but not too chalk to the point that it's boring (looking at you Obama). I love a good mid-major upset story just as much as the next person.

How I picked my final four:

    I generally looked at teams who had good showings in their conference tournaments to continue that success here, because it logically made sense to ride teams who had already proven to be successful in a tournament environment. I also looked at the overall strength of the region (in my subjective, uneducated mind of course) to determine which teams I felt confident in choosing to last it out until April. 

    Gonzaga was practically a shoe-in since Iowa wasn't a particularly strong 2-seed, and the other top seeded teams in the West, Kansas and Virginia, were fresh off of COVID pauses, putting them down as a question mark.

    Ohio State might have been me falling for big-name syndrome, but the main factor that set me to choose them to make it out of the South region was how they fared on Selection Sunday: they went toe-to-toe with Illinois (who will be talked about soon), another team who carried an insane amount of momentum, and topped with Baylor being rather shaky after their COVID pause, I chose to ignore their four game skid to end the regular season and slot them in my final four.

    Surprisingly, Illinois was my final four pick that I was least confident about. Even though all they were doing come tournament time was winning, I had a feeling that maybe a Loyola Chicago, or more likely an Oklahoma State team who had defeated several top-ranked teams to end the season, could end the Fighting Illini's chances. I had seriously considered putting the Cowboys in my final four instead for these reasons, but I wasn't particularly confident that they would make it out of the early rounds, while I was much more willing to bet on Illinois in their other matches compared to Oklahoma St. Houston did not impress me at all and West Virginia couldn't appear to get a win streak going, so I was definitely not choosing anyone on the bottom half of the Midwest to make it out.

    Lastly, we have Texas. As a 3-seed, the Longhorns were my "gutsiest" final four prediction, which makes it all the more surprising that we're having this conversation today. First of all, Michigan was looking like a complete joke of a 1-seed going into the tournament, so there was no shot I was putting them in my final four. Alabama also won their conference tournament, but the SEC was weaker and the Crimson Tide weren't super convincing over a middling LSU team who did put up a pretty good fight to be fair. I also just preferred Texas' extremely balanced scoring attack with 5 players putting up at least 9 PPG, which Alabama is close to but doesn't quite achieve. Depth tends to win out in the NCAA tournament, so it made sense to pick a team who both had depth and was tournament tested. I was also more worried about Alabama falling early to a Bouknight-led Huskies team in the early rounds than any team in Texas' pod. There might have also been the factor of wanting to pick a team outside of the top two seeds, but I genuinely did think Texas had it in them to make it to April.

Choosing Upsets:

    I made sure to not choose too many upsets that I would not realistically predict all correctly because I could do much better off picking the safe team to advance without risking my entire bracket. Because of this, I only picked upsets in places where I wouldn't have picked the favorite to advance much farther anyway. This is why I didn't pick Loyola to beat Illinois, because even though I thought it was a possibility, there was a chance that a rolling Georgia Tech took down the Ramblers, and Illinois had so much more potential to make a deep run outside of just making it to the sweet 16. Take Colgate for example: I recognized that their 3-point percentage was scarily high, and technically had a top 10, albeit severely inflated, net ranking. This, combined with Arkansas not really popping out at me as a true top team, allowed me to take a flier on the Raiders. I was comfortable with this because I was picking Texas Tech to advance to the sweet 16 no matter who won that matchup, so I went with the realistic cinderella. I honestly don't know why Arkansas flew under my radar considering they were on a roll to end the season, but I think I just saw them go down early in the conference tournament, and they striked me as a team that wasn't cut out for March.

    Looking back on my predictions, I was not high on the Pac-12 at all. I definitely remember picking Pac-12 teams to go far in previous tournaments for them to disappoint, so I tended to pick against the conference as a whole (which turned out to be a huge mistake). I picked Drake to defeat USC, one of my least researched predictions, so I would definitely say that this was a gut prediction since I didn't have confidence in the other 11-seeds to pull a first round upset. One pick I was significantly more confident in was picking Georgetown over Colorado: the Hoyas rolled through the Big East tourney, an indicator that they were finally finding their form, so it was easy for me to make this a classic 12-5 upset over an apparent over-seeded Buffaloes squad who were also fresh off a loss to an Oregon State team who has followed a similar path as Georgetown. I then picked the Hoyas to defeat Florida State in the round of 32 due to the Seminoles' struggles against tournament teams away from home, and my lack of confidence in them to beat their sweet 16 opponent (who we will talk about very soon) should they make it.

    My elite 8 had mostly normal picks with two that were a bit more unconventional. We'll start off with LSU. Their strong performance in the SEC tournament caught my eye, as well as their apparent strong under-seeding according to Bracket Matrix. I tend to like teams who have a worse seed than they should because it means that the top teams may not be prepared to play a foe like them. This, combined with Michigan being without Isaiah Livers, actually made it a rather easy choice to send the Wolverines packing after their match against LSU. I didn't see any potential sweet 16 team who seemed particularly threatening, so I decided to keep the Tigers rolling.

    San Diego State was my other elite 8 sleeper. Looking back on it, if I picked any 6-seed to make a run it should have been USC. The Aztecs were generally over-seeded according to bracketologists and the Trojans might have been slightly under-seeded. That being said, what led me to pick SDSU was more based off the bottom half of the Midwest being particularly unappealing rather than the Aztecs being good themselves. I did like how they had rubbed off their early season woes and boasted a winning streak over a dozen games long going into the tournament. Their first round opponent, Syracuse, did not beat a tournament team away from home all season, so I had no reason to think they'd finally break that streak here. West Virginia appeared to be over-seeded, which indicated to me that this was an opportunity to take the mid-major sleeper. And just looking at resumes, Houston looked to be an extremely weak 2-seed. While they won their major opportunity against Texas Tech, it didn't seem like the Cougars really set themselves apart from the rest of the AAC with losses to Tulsa, East Carolina, and Wichita State. With these warning signs, I kept the Aztecs going another round.

In the next post, I will be looking at commonalities among the slain powerhouses of the tournament and see if I can avoid making such blunders in the future. To be continued...