Later Round NCAA Tournament Predictions
Good evening! Having observing one weekend of the NCAA Tournament already, it's safe to say that this wasn't an expected outcome at all with the highest total sum of the seeds ever seen in a sweet 16. Only 7 teams on the top 4 seed lines actually made it to the sweet 16, and the average seed in this year's sweet 16 was a lofty 5.875. Without further ado, I'll share who I think makes it out of each region.
West
Teams Remaining: No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 5 Creighton, No. 6 USC, No. 7 Oregon
Boring as it may be, I just don't have a reason to go against the Zags. They're currently undefeated and have convincing wins both in the tournament and against top teams. I do think the winner of the Pac-12 showdown will give the Bulldogs a run for their money, but they won't quite be able to knock them out of the whole dance. In that game, I give the slight edge to the Ducks because I feel like they were better tested last round than USC. Both teams were dominant, but Kansas was still feeling the COVID pause, which makes Oregon's offensive throbbing the more impressive performance. Tack on that Dana Altman is a extremely solid coach, and I think he'll get his Ducks a trip to the elite 8.
South
Teams Remaining: No. 1 Baylor, No. 5 Villanova, No. 3 Arkansas, No. 15 Oral Roberts
This is the region which I'm really uncertain about who will be advancing to April play. As the bottom matchup is easier to decide, I'll dissect that one first. Oral Roberts has been a phenomenal story, but the clock is about to strike midnight for this Cinderella. No team worse than a 12-seed has ever advanced past the sweet 16, and I have no reason to assume that streak will break here. The Hogs, while showing signs of vulnerability in the tourney thus far, have been great at closing out games. I predict that they'll close out yet another team in the sweet 16.
Baylor vs. Villanova is a much trickier game to predict: before the tournament started, I would have gone with Baylor easily, but the Wildcats have managed to shine in the absence of Colin Gillespie. I thought they were going to lose to Winthrop, but they have convincingly won both of their games, as have the Bears. I do think that whoever wins this game will advance to the final four. While Villanova have exceeded expectations thus far, guard play wins out further into the tournament, and Baylor have among the best set of guards in the nation. I pick the Bears to advance out of the South.
Midwest
Teams Remaining: No. 8 Loyola Chicago, No. 12 Oregon State, No. 11 Syracuse, No. 2 Houston
Oh how close we were to having a sweet 16 where the average seed in the region was a double digit. Had Rutgers not choked the final minutes against Houston, we'd be sitting in a sweet 16 where the eighth-seeded ramblers were the best seed remaining. With that out of the way, I'll go ahead and say that I believe the Syracuse Orange will come out of the Midwest region. I really don't know why I'm so confident in this Boeheim squad other than their past NCAA Tournament experience as a double digit seed. In 2016, Syracuse were the first team to reach the final four as a 10-seed, and made another run to the sweet 16 in 2018 as an 11-seed. I've still not completely bought into Houston, especially after a game that the Cougars arguably shouldn't have won. We can also point out the Sister Jean herself put Loyola in the elite 8, which I agree with after seeing their consistently strong performance in their victory over the Illini. The Beavers, on the other hand, came out of the round of 32 alive, but not without allowing the Cowboys to claw back into a game that appeared to be over. There has been a trend that the Pac-12 bid thieves make their way into the sweet 16, but the run always ends here. Anticipate the Orange taking down the Ramblers to reach another final four appearance.
East
Teams Remaining: No. 1 Michigan, No. 4 Florida State, No. 11 UCLA, No. 2 Alabama
It still surprises me that of all the Big Ten teams to still be remaining in the tournament, it happens to be the vulnerable Livers-less Wolverines. LSU could have very easily won that game if they didn't take a few ill-advised shots. Michigan are still without their top scorer, and they will dearly miss that against a Seminoles team that dominated against a team from the overachieving Pac-12 in Colorado. Florida State will hold another team to under 60 points and continue their run to the elite 8.
On the bottom half of the east region, we have the 11th-seeded UCLA Bruins up against Alabama, the 2-seed. Both teams have looked quite solid, making it a bit difficult to choose this matchup. I'm tempted to roll with the Tide just because they've been better at closing out games throughout the season, though UCLA have been doing better during the tournament. I do think that whoever wins this game will eventually lose to Florida State in the elite 8, putting a second team from the ACC in the final four.
Final Four Predictions
1 Gonzaga vs. 4 Florida State
1 Baylor vs. 11 Syracuse
So that pretty much wraps up this unscientific prediction, and while I could predict the rest of the tournament from here, I'm simply going to take it one game (or in this case, two) at a time, just like how teams still playing will be doing. And feel free to flame me when these picks turn out to be completely incorrect.
No comments:
Post a Comment