We have finally made it to conference tournament season! Seven teams have already punched their tickets to the NCAA Tournament, and 24 more will secure their spot before Selection Sunday. I wanted to dive deep into teams whose at-large fates are in question, considering their current resume and potential path to an at-large. Today, I am going to discuss teams in power conferences whose tournaments start today, with power conferences starting tomorrow and mid-major at-large hopefuls being examined in future posts. And, without further ado, let’s get into the breakdowns:
ACC
Locks: #1 Duke, #2 Louisville, #3 Clemson
#4 Wake Forest - 21-10 (13-7)
For much of the season, Wake lacked high end wins outside of a 72-70 nailbiter over Michigan. That win has not only aged well, but their clean team sheet kept them inside the field. This changed in February, where the Demon Deacons lost to Florida State, NC State, and Virginia in back-to-back-to-back weeks. Depending on where the Wolfpack stand on a given day, this is either two or three Q3 losses, and a 2-7 Q1 record does not do them any favors, even with a weak bubble.
They now sit almost universally outside the field (my fifth team out). Luckily for Wake, however, they have two imminent Q1 opportunities against UNC and Duke. Anything short and this team is not tournament bound, but a loss to Clemson or Louisville in the finals would bring them to a respectable 4-8 in Q1 and a 10-9 Q1/2 record. While I would guess this is enough to get into the tournament, the committee has seemingly devalued conference tournament games lately, and bid thieves are still looming. If I were Wake, I wouldn’t feel safe unless I got the autobid.
#5 North Carolina - 20-12 (13-7)
One of the preseason top 10 teams who is now fighting for their tournament life. Their 1-11 Q1 record is absolutely disgusting to look at, and it’s a miracle that they still have a chance at the dance. The regular season finale loss to Duke could have been the final nail in the coffin, but other teams lost games they absolutely could not afford to lose. As a result, they’re a consensus first four out team (my first team out), and even appearing in some projected fields.
Like Wake, the Tar Heels have a golden opportunity against Duke, and failing to win that game should be the end to their tournament hopes. I could see the committee giving them a good read, however, especially as we saw Virginia sneak in last year. Let’s just say that having Bubba Cunningham, North Carolina Athletic Director, as the committee chairman definitely isn’t going to hurt the Heels. I’m rather confident that wins against Pitt, Wake and Duke would push them into the field, and a finals loss to one of the two other surefire tournament teams would give UNC an ugly 2-12 Q1 record, but a much more respectable 11-12 in Q1/2. If such a run were to occur, I’m almost certain that their favorable metrics (particularly the predictives) would be too strong to leave them out.
#6 SMU - 22-9 (13-7)
Quite frankly, this team has been on the bubble for far too long. This team does not have a Q1 victory, and none of their Q1 contests have been particularly close. Similar to North Carolina, they were propped up by a relatively clean resume outside of Q1 and very competitive metrics, both from a predictive and results-based perspective. That being said, SMU has suffered losses at Stanford and Florida State, and currently sit at just 6-5 in Q2 with a 6-9 Q1/2 record.
These factors, in combination with their results metrics falling to an average of 56.3, have taken them completely off the bubble picture. While they still have the opportunity to pick up two Q1 victories without winning the ACC Tournament, they played their way out of a pre-finals matchup with Duke. Don’t get me wrong, Clemson and Louisville are clearly top-half of the bracket NCAA tournament teams, but those wins will not pop off the screen like a win over Duke in Charlotte. Without winning the ACC Tourney, the Mustangs’ best-case scenario is that they are 2-5 in Q1, 9-10 in Q1/2, and somewhat favorable predictive metrics. I honestly don’t think this is enough, especially considering that they don’t even have a win in Q2-A, let alone a tournament team. I could be wrong, but it’s probably auto-bid or bust for the Ponies.
Big 12
Locks: #1 Houston, #2 Texas Tech, #3 Arizona, #4 BYU, #5 Iowa State, #6 Kansas
#7 Baylor - 18-13 (10-10)
Baylor had the opportunity to make this an open-and-shut case Saturday night when the Houston Cougars visited Waco, but the Bears came up just short. They are still a projected 10-seed on the Bracket Matrix (they are my 4th-to-last team in), but they are by no means safe. I don’t think most people realize the importance of their victory at TCU, as it added a true road win and proved that the Bears could compete without Josh Oijanwuna. As of right now, Baylor is 3-5 without Oijanwuna, but 0-4 in Q1 (TCU was a Q1 victory out the time, but they fell out of the top 75). It’ll be interesting to see how the committee evaluates this injury.
Despite a less-than-stellar last month, the Bears still sit at 5-11 in Q1 and 10-12 in Q1/2 with predictive metrics in the top 30. Their resume is highlighted by a buzzer beater (and admittedly fluky) win over St. John’s in overtime, accounting for their only Q1-A victory this season. This is precisely why I would not be ready to lock Baylor in the tournament, even with a win in their conference tournament opener over Kansas State or Arizona State. A loss to Texas Tech would leave them at 5-12 in Q1, a paltry 1-10 in Q1-A, and a sub .500 record against the top three quadrants. Especially considering this would be 0-5 in Q1 following the injury, I really think the committee would factor it into seeding. For these reasons, I believe Baylor has to win at least one game to dance, with two victories to feel safe.
#8 West Virginia - 19-12 (10-10)
The Mountaineers have a surprisingly similar situation to Baylor, but there is a significantly larger sample size without Tucker DeVries. A 9 or 10-seed according to most people, I am a bit lower on them due to their big non-conference wins coming with him in the lineup (not sure why Arizona is technically a non-conference game, but I’m guessing they scheduled it before the Wildcats were officially in the Big 12). The committee emphasized a team’s ability to build their resume in the non-conference as well, so I am interested to see how the committee evaluates their resume. With four Q1 wins following the injury, including two in Q1-A, West Virginia has proven enough without DeVries to remain inside the field.
I think West Virginia is a fair bit safer than Baylor, and I would be comfortable locking them in the tournament provided they don’t go one and done. Even a loss to TCU or Colorado would only go down as Q2, but 9-13 in the top two quadrants is not a particularly pretty mark. Six Q1 victories is excellent for the bubble, and I would expect 4-7 in Q1-A to keep the Mountaineers above the cutline, especially with top 40 results-based metrics and top 50 predictives. They must win a game to feel completely safe, but West Virginia will be dancing in all likelihood.
#13 Cincinnati - 17-14 (7-13)
Another top 25 preseason team who finds themselves below the cutline, Cincinnati has no business being in current NCAA Tournament discussions. Their only Q1 victory was at home against BYU, and they join the Tar Heels with 11 losses surrounding that singular win. Their best wins away from home are against Dayton and UCF, neither of which are inside the bubble as I write this. With a loss at Oklahoma State to close the regular season, Cincy’s 11-14 record against the top three quadrants forces them into a position where a deep tournament run is necessary to have any shot at an at-large.
Luckily for the Bearcats, their path in the Big 12 Tourney is ripe with chances for elite victories. They took care of business against the aforementioned Cowboys, setting Cincy up for golden opportunities against Iowa State, BYU, and, most likely, Houston. Even with a loss in the Big 12 Championship, these three resume-headlining wins would put the Bearcats at 4-12 in Q1, 2-7 in Q1-A and 13-15 in Q1/2. Their predictive metrics are already at-large worthy, and the results metrics, which currently sit in the 60s, are bound to improve. This hypothetical resume would be incredibly bubbly, and I don’t feel comfortable saying one way or the other that Cincinnati would get an at-large if they lost in the Big 12 Finals. Even with a weak bubble, however, my instincts say that Cincy needs to win the Big 12 Tournament to make it to March Madness, especially with recent conference tournament runs not propelling teams as high as one might expect.
Comments
Post a Comment