Beware the Bid Thieves
If you're a bubble team or a fan of a bubble team, odds are you'll be sweating it out come Selection Sunday. Besides suffering bad losses, there are other external factors which can hinder a team's ability to dance in March. These consist of how other bubble teams do and how well your marquee victories hold up, but nothing is more threatening to one's at-large chances than a bid thief.
What is a bid thief? A bid thief is a team who would not make the tournament with an at-large bid, but wins their conference tournament, gets the automatic bid, and that conference still has a team that gets an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
An example of a bid thief would be Murray St. in 2019. They won the Ohio Valley's automatic bid, got in the tournament as a 12-seed (last at-large teams were 11-seeds, so they would not have gotten in without the win over Belmont), and Belmont still made the big dance with an at-large bid. Had the Bruins not made the NCAA Tournament, Murray State would not have been a bid thief.
A team like Northeastern was not a bid thief because no one in the Colonial received an at-large bid. On the other hand, a team like Auburn was not a bid thief because they would've made the tournament even without the automatic bid.
Generally, there's between 1 and 2 bid thieves each year, and usually come from more high-profile mid-major conferences. There are a few candidates for these heartless bid-stealing snobs, so let's take a look:
Potential Bid Thieves Who Have Already Won Their Conference Tournament
Utah St: 26-8 (12-6 MWC)
Having lost to New Mexico in the regular season finale, the Aggies were determined to show that they were still in it to make the NCAA Tournament. They squeezed out single-digit victories over lowly New Mexico and Wyoming en route to the monster that is San Diego St. In one of the greatest conference tournament finals games, Sam Merrill hit a dagger of a 3-pointer with 2.5 seconds to secure a 59-56 victory and clinch a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Following the impressive victory, Utah State has been placed as either a 10 or an 11-seed in mock brackets. While this seems too high to be bid thief territory, the majority of mock brackets had the Aggies barely out going into the game. San Diego State is a lock for a top two seed, so the question is whether Utah St. would have received an at-large bid had they lost. My guess is likely no, but I think they had about a 40% to make the Tournament even if they lost to San Diego St.
Bradley: 23-11 (11-7 MVC)
This case is more akin to the OVC last year, where some team who would not receive an at-large (Murray St.) wins the automatic bid over a team who has at-large potential (Belmont). The Braves didn't actually beat Northern Iowa en route to their automatic bid because UNI lost in the quarterfinals. Bradley is currently projected as a 14-seed in mock brackets, and there is still a chance that the Panthers snag an at-large despite the ugly loss in the quarterfinals of Arch Madness. Should UNI still make the tournament, Bradley would also be one of those revered bid thieves, but I only give them about a 20-25% chance of making the big dance.
Bid Thieves Currently Looming
Wofford: 19-15 (8-10 SoCon)
The Terriers have a chance to go back to the NCAA Tournament by winning tonight over East Tennessee St. That, of course, will be no easy task, but should Wofford pull off the upset, ETSU still has a very realistic chance of dancing. Most mock brackets have the Bucs as an 11-seed, and at least in my bracket, if ETSU is to lose tonight, they will still be in as an at-large bid. Hence, Wofford would become a bid thief. I think the committee will like how the Buccaneers made the most of their most difficult games, including a win at LSU, and place them in the tournament even if they lose. I think ETSU's spot in the big dance is relatively secure so expect to hear their name called on Selection Sunday no matter the result of the game against Wofford.
Southland
The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks boast an impressive 28-3 record, which includes a win at Cameron Indoor. I'm honestly surprised this team isn't being talked about more as a potential at-large candidate, as they have the win at Duke and only one bad loss so far, which was by a single point. Say they lose in the conference tournament final to either Abilene Christian or Nicholls St: the Lumberjacks will have a 29-4 record, a 1-2 record against quad 1, and only 2 bad losses. Their greatest issue is strength of schedule, for over 75% of their contests are against quad 4. However, their resume adds up to a very realistic at-large profile (especially for being projected a 13-seed in some mock brackets) if they lose in the conference tournament. If SFA doesn't get that automatic-bid, don't be surprised if the Southland winner ends up being a bid-stealer.
Pac-12
This is by far the power conference where the idea of a bid thief is most prevalent. There is no dominant team; the top team, Oregon, is a projected 4-seed, and everyone else in the at-large conversation is either a high single-digit seed or on the bubble. While there are 7 teams who probably won't need the Pac-12 tournament crown to go dancing, a few teams below that threshold have shown that they can win games over the top teams in the conference. Oregon St. has beaten 4 of the teams in the at-large conversation, including at Colorado and Stanford, and Washington finally seems to have found their footing, having won at Arizona St. and Arizona in their past two games. The Beavers or the Huskies could potentially go on a run to win the wide-open race for an automatic bid, and if they do, it would come at the expense of another team's at-large berth.
Atlantic 10
Dayton has not lost yet in conference play, but a few teams have come close to beating them. I feel like their undefeated run has a very realistic shot of coming to an end in their next 3 games, and if it does, there are many teams who could claim the crown of 'bid thief.' No one is a lock to make it besides Dayton, but I think Richmond would make it if it found itself in the A10 final, even in the event of a loss. Saint Louis is the most likely bid-stealer in this conference since they pushed the Flyers to overtime and played them close in Dayton. They've also quietly amassed a fringe at-large case assuming they don't get the automatic bid. Other than the Bilikens, Davidson, Duquesne, Rhode Island, VCU, and St. Bonaventure are all pretty decent as well and have potential to win a few games in the A10 Tourney.
American
The AAC easily is the most likely conference to house a bid thief. In fact, I would say there's a solid 75% chance that one does come out of the American. It has the perfect environment for one to sprout: no dominant teams, one projected high single-digit seed, and about 6 teams on or a bit below the bubble who are capable of competing with anyone in the conference. Houston, a projected 8-seed in mock brackets, has already lost to Tulsa, Cincinnati, SMU, Memphis, and UConn. Only Cincinnati has a realistic shot of an at-large, and will have to beat Wichita St. and lose in the finals in order to receive one. There is also a chance that Wichita St. is on the outside looking in, and even with a win over Cincinnati (which is likely going to be an elimination game for both teams), they may still need the American's automatic bid. This same sentiment has even more truth for the teams who almost certainly need the conference tournament crown; such as Tulsa, who won a share of the AAC regular season title; Memphis, who always seems to be among the next four out; and UConn and SMU, who have beaten the higher ranked teams in the conference while being somewhat inconsistent. There's a very high chance that one of these pretty good teams goes on a run, knocks off Houston (or lets someone else knock off the Cougars), and steals the automatic bid. Bubble teams, this is the conference you need to be especially wary of.
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