This is a continuation of the previous post where I discussed potential bubble teams whose power conference tournaments started on Wednesday. You can view that here. While this post is geared at mid-majors, I will only be discussing teams whose conference tournaments are not decided: Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, and Drake will all clearly be in the NCAA Tournament. I will also not be going over the American because Memphis is evidently a lock and nobody else has a chance of being anything but a bid thief. Enough said, here are ten teams across three mid-major conferences that are worth even the slightest at-large conversation:
Atlantic 10
#1 VCU - 25-6 (15-3)
For much of this season, I have been lower on the Rams than most; I didn’t see a tournament victory on their resume, nor were they unscathed outside of top 75 opponents. Finally, a loss to Dayton put VCU on the 11 or 12-line in most brackets. It’ll be very interesting to see how the committee evaluates their resume, for 1-1 and 5-4 in Q1 and Q2, respectively, are not eye-popping for a mid-major schedule. However, they only have one loss outside of the top two quadrants (vs Seton Hall in Charleston), and are adored by the predictive metrics with a top-32 ranking in all of them. Even the results-based metrics don’t dislike them, with the Rams only ranking outside the top 50 in WAB.
I am terrified to be wrong on this team and the A-10 all over again. Last year, I thought Duquesne was closer to a 13 than an 11, and I thought Dayton was closer to a 10 than a 7. I don’t think VCU’s strong predictives make them a shoe-in for the tournament, considering Indiana State missed last year with a NET of 28, but that was a stronger bubble. Without an opportunity for a resume-defining win in the A-10 Tourney, VCU can only secure their spot in March Madness with the auto-bid.
In some ways, the Rams grabbing the top seed hurts their chances of an at-large bid, for they don’t have the opportunity to notch victories against Dayton, George Mason, or even St. Joe’s until the Atlantic 10 Championship. Even so, there’s a scenario where the committee values their wins at Dayton and against Colorado State in Henderson, which have both aged well as these teams have universally found themselves on first and next four out lists. I don’t see a world where VCU goes one and done and still gets an auto-bid, but there’s a chance that one more Q2 victory is all it takes with great predictives and adequate results metrics. With the current picture, I anticipate that they need to reach the final to have a solid chance of receiving an at-large, but the committee could view them in such a way where one win is enough or anything short of a conference tournament championship is not enough.
#2 George Mason - 23-7 (15-3)
The Patriots had an opportunity to be in the thick of at-large discussion going into the final week of February, but got outworked in the second half to fall at VCU. They then followed it up with a loss at Duquesne to give George Mason their fourth defeat outside of the top two quadrants. With predictives in the 70s and 80s and results-based metrics in the 50s, George Mason should be nowhere near a projected tournament bid at the moment.
A few things are in the Patriots’ favor, though, including a respectable 4-3 Q1/2 record with a perfect 3-0 in Q2. Like VCU, George Mason lacks a win over a tournament team, but won at Dayton who is not too far off. However, with only one Q2 opportunity before the A-10 Final, GMU needs the automatic bid to be dancing in march, and it isn’t particularly close.
#3 Dayton - 22-9 (12-6)
Dayton would be well inside the tournament field if they could’ve just held it together in conference play. Alas, they didn’t. Three straight losses to George Washington, at home to George Mason, and at UMass are difficult to recover from, especially considering they didn’t clean house following the losing streak. Good news for the Flyers, they are playing better as of late, nabbed a victory at VCU (despite making their best effort to blow the game), and still have non-conference victories over Marquette and UConn to hang their hat on. They boast a strong 3-3 record in Q1, but are a paltry 2-5 in Q2 and have predictive metrics in the 70s. Results-based metrics between 46 and 59 aren’t a screaming endorsement of the Flyers’ at-large prospects, either.
Moving onto the A-10 Tournament, Dayton has a couple opportunities to pick up Q2 victories before the championship. Best case scenario for the Flyers would be wins against St. Joe’s and George Mason before losing to VCU which would bring them to 3-4 in Q1 and 4-4 in Q2 with one loss outside the top two quadrants. Those numbers are subject to fluctuation, however, with VCU just outside the top 30, George Mason barely inside the top 75, St. Joe’s right outside the top 75, and Rhode Island one spot away from the top 135. Depending on how the metrics shake out, this is an interesting at-large profile, especially with what they proved out of conference. My gut says that such a scenario would have them among the first four out due to a consistent ability to lose their road Q2 games. I think there’s a reality where the committee puts Dayton in Dayton with their strong non-conference and a relatively dry Champ Week, but the Flyers likely need to win the A-10 to reach the Big Dance.
Big West
#1 UC San Diego - 28-4 (16-2 BW)
Let’s get the elephant out of the room; the D1 ineligibility period is arguably the worst rule in all of sports, and the stated reasoning is extremely laughable. With that out of the way, the Tritons are making the most of their first season where NCAA Tournament play is a possibility. They scheduled two Q1 opportunities at San Diego State and Utah State, winning the latter. This is propping up their current resume, and, with only one loss outside the top two quads (might add another if UC Riverside falls outside the top 135), the Tritons have kept a particularly clean profile considering the conference they play in. A 2-1 Q1 record looks great compared to power conference at-large hopefuls who have one win to a lot of Q1 losses, and a top 50 ranking in all metrics not named BPI contributes to a legitimate at-large profile.
The Tritons have a legitimate path to an at-large berth, but they cannot afford a truly awful loss. Their most likely route contains a date with Cal State Fullerton in the semis and UC Irvine in the finals. A loss at the hands of the Anteaters would drop them to a porous 1-3 in Q2, which makes me wonder if UCSD’s profile would look better with a random bad loss, rather than one that further questions the Tritons’ ability to win against tournament-caliber teams. They need at least one victory to shield against the metrics dropping in a loss against whoever they meet in the Big West Championship, but I would expect the committee to view UCSD in a favorable light as long as a finals loss does not tank their numbers. The Tritons obviously need to win in order to be immune from NCAA Tournament exclusion, but I disagree with the consensus 12-seed present on the Bracket Matrix suggesting it is auto-bid or bust. There’s a real conversation to be had with UC San Diego, and it looks favorable compared to many teams on the cutline.
#2 UC Irvine - 27-5 (15-3 BW)
Somehow and someway, the Big West produced two teams that have legitimate at-large cases. The path for the Anteaters isn’t as open as UCSD’s, but UC Irvine has a profile worthy of being right on the cutline. They’re held back by poor predictive metrics and two Q3 defeats, but won their only Q1 opportunity at UC San Diego, boast a 4-3 Q1/2 record, and have accrued 14 true road victories. With respectable results-based metrics, I have UC Irvine as my last team in the field, ahead of North Carolina and Xavier, for actually winning their sole opportunity rather than tallying up a dozen Q1 games to end up with the same number of victories.
Onto the conference tournament, UC Irvine cannot afford a loss to any team not named UC San Diego. With their defeat at UCSB teetering between Q2 and Q3, a third or fourth Q3 blemish would be too much for the Anteaters to overcome. Go 1-1 with a loss to the Tritons, however, and they’ll find themselves in largely the same position that they do now. It will likely not be enough for an at-large with power conference teams going on late-season surges and other conferences opening the door for bid thieves, but a mellow Champ Week and a committee who values the opportunistic nature of their profile could sneak the Anteaters into the Big Dance. Any less from UC Irvine, and there’s no chance of an at-large. Anything more and the Anteaters would have won the Big West’s automatic bid, so they should really just erase any doubt from the committee about a profile that is, at best, teetering on the tournament’s edge.
Mountain West
#1 New Mexico - 25-6 (17-3)
The Lobos should have an impressive enough resume to withstand even the worst conference tournament outing, but I don’t think we can say any Mountain West team is a surefire lock considering how the conference was treated last year. The committee claimed that these teams were penalized for failing to build a profile outside of conference play, but only New Mexico and Utah State failed to notch a Q1 non-conference victory among the conference’s six tournament teams last season. The more likely explanation is that the Mountain West got docked for underperforming in March Madness, and understandably so.
With that out of the way, it’s important to note that the Lobos secured their marquee non-conference win on a neutral site against UCLA, further supplementing it with victories over VCU and USC. Their resume is a bit weird, with two Q3 losses but an impressive 11-4 against Q1/2 that includes two Q1-A victories over Utah State and, of course, UCLA. Even with the bad losses, this looks like a profile that could be wearing white in the Round of 64, but hesitancy with the conference makes a projected 9-seed fair for New Mexico.
Let’s consider a loss to San Jose State in the conference tournament: the Lobos would have an identical record in Q1 and Q3, which is certainly not a common characteristic. Their top 30-35 results-based metrics and top 45-50 predictives would certainly fall a bit, but that gaudy Q1/2 record remains intact. Even in a worst case scenario, New Mexico is a lock and should avoid Dayton barring the wildest of weekends.
#2 Colorado State - 22-9 (16-4)
What a way to fight back into NCAA Tournament conversations! Colorado State was not even sniffing my radar until a couple weeks ago, and a win at Boise State places them clearly within the bubble picture. Now, this is their only Q1 victory, and 1-5 in the top quadrant is not pretty, but 7-7 vs Q1/2 (which includes wins over Utah State and San Diego State) and metrics between 47 and 56 are respectable for a bubble hopeful.
Still, there are significant concerns about this profile from an at-large perspective; they have no results-based metrics inside the top 50, no wins away from home against a clear tournament team, and a truly terrible non-conference performance where they went 1-5 against the top three quadrants and suffered both of their Q3 defeats on the season. Their best shot at an at-large would entail victories against Nevada and Utah State before falling to whichever tournament-worthy Mountain West opponent meets them in the finals. This would put the Rams at 2-6 in Q1 and 7-2 in Q2 with metrics in the 40s and 50s. On paper, this feels like a profile that should have a legitimate at-large case with the current profile, but I have a hard time seeing Colorado State get selected with how poorly they fared in the non-conference and nothing really standing out on their resume. I’m not discounting the run the Rams have made, but games in November and December matter. At the end of today, that is going to force Colorado State to win the MWC Tourney if they wish to dance
#3 Utah State - 25-6 (15-5)
After failing to pick up a Q1 victory in the 2025 calendar year, the Aggies’ profile has slowly looked worse and worse. It doesn’t help that their losses at Boise State and Colorado State weren’t particularly close, likely contributing to a KenPom outside the top 50 and ranking 44th in Torvik. Regardless, Utah State has no losses outside of the top two quadrants, sporting a 9-6 Q1/2 record. Headlined by a win at Saint Mary’s, the Aggies really solidified their resume in the non-conference with Q2 neutral site victories over North Texas, Iowa, and St. Bonaventure. All in all, Utah State is properly viewed as a 9 or 10-seed in most projections.
What would happen if the Aggies were to fall to UNLV? While any chance of a single-digit seed likely goes down the drain, I’m not sure if it puts Utah State in any danger of missing the dance. Nothing would suggest that this team shouldn’t be playing in March Madness other than a KenPom (presumably) just inside the top 60. A 9-7 Q1/2 mark is easily good enough for the tournament and there are no bad losses to detract from the resume. The seed won’t be as pretty as envisioned, but the Aggies have done enough, especially in the non-conference, to secure their spot in the Big Dance despite a potential Mountain West seed tax.
#4 San Diego State - 21-8 (14-6)
Following two consecutive 5-seeds and trips to the NCAA Tournament Finals and Sweet 16, respectively, the Aztecs are experiencing a down year for their standards. Fortunately for San Diego State, their idea of a down season is being a few spots above the cutline. They have also proven to be immune from the underseeding experienced by the rest of the Mountain West, for SDSU was the only MWC team last year to get the same seed as projected by the Bracket Matrix. They did a lot of damage in the non-conference last year, and it’s keeping them afloat this year, too; simply put, it’s hard to beat a pair of non-home victories against Houston and Creighton. With those two headlining wins, an 8-7 Q1/2 record, and top 45 marks in every results-based metric, you’d be hard pressed to leave out the Aztecs.
Now, can they afford a loss to Boise State? A truly critical “double bubble” game for the tournament landscape, SDSU, with a loss, would fall to 3-6 in Q1, 8-8 against the top two quads, and still have a Q3 defeat at the hands of UNLV in San Diego. I believe the committee will place higher emphasis on non-conference than most, allowing the Aztecs to squeak inside the projected field even with a one and done trip in the MWC Tourney. They are not immune from a bid thief-heavy Champ Week, however, so San Diego State should really consider winning their opener against the Broncos if they wish to secure a tournament berth.
#5 Boise State - 22-9 (14-6)
Other than Nebraska, no bubble hopeful destroyed the hopes and dreams of their fans in the past week as much as Boise State. The Broncos had won nine of ten, doing a mix of taking care of business against the bottom feeders of the Mountain West and filling out their resume with some much-needed Q2 victories. Then Colorado State comes to town and puts an end to their very short-lived stint of appearing in the majority of projected brackets. All hope is not lost, though. With a 6-7 Q1/2 mark and wins in the non-conference over Saint Mary’s and Clemson, Boise State finds itself among most first four out lists. This is further echoed by metrics having the Broncos ranked anywhere from 43rd to 58th.
So, just how much work does Boise State have to do in the MWC Tournament? With two bad losses to Washington State and Boston College, the Broncos have to get to at least .500 against the top two quads to likely hear their name called. They fortunately have opportunities against San Diego State and (probably) New Mexico looming ahead, and victories in those before a loss to Utah State in the final would push them to 3-6 in Q1 and 5-2 in Q2 with slightly improved metrics. There would be a more urgent need to win if they are not against the Aggies in the finals, for anyone else in that half of the bracket would be a bid thief and steal one of the Broncos’ coveted at-large spots. While this resume would still appear bubbly, a trip to Dayton is likely considering the state of the bubble. Boise State’s proof of quality victories in the non-conference (including one away from home against St. Mary’s) should push them over the edge considering what previous committees have said. Having said that, the Broncos are not unquestionably in the clear unless they win the MWC’s automatic bid.
Comments
Post a Comment