The First Fallen Mid-Major Prospect

Northern Iowa Falters Early in Arch Madness

Northern Iowa went into the MVC tourney as the clear best team and the obvious favorite to get the automatic bid. Many people questioned whether UNI would be able to grab an NCAA Tournament bid should they fall short of winning their conference tournament. There were definitely a few teams in the valley who were capable of challenging the Panthers for the title, specifically Loyola Chicago and Indiana State, but I doubt anyone was expecting UNI to be one and done, especially in a blowout loss to a team that they beat by 27 a week before.

After getting blasted at home by Northern Iowa on leap day, Drake was ready to avenge the loss. They started by defeating Illinois St. in the first round to set up the rematch. Like many of UNI's previous contests, the Panthers started out slow. They trailed by 10 at halftime, and by as much as 17 in the first half. While Northern Iowa cut Drake's lead to just 2 points only 4 minutes into the second half, and maintained that small deficit for a few more minutes, the Bulldogs answered with an 18-0 run of their own. UNI suffered a 77-56 defeat, which will go in the books as a quad 3 loss and leaves an ugly final impression on the selection committee.

Have the Panthers done enough to warrant an at-large bid? As they don't play in a major conference, their opportunities to notch marquee victories are obviously fewer. They do have a 4-3 record against the top two quads, which includes a win at Colorado (still really strong today), a close loss on a neutral court to West Virginia, and a neutral Court victory over South Carolina in their non-conference slate.

What they did in conference play was more damaging to their resume. They split their four quad 2 opportunities in the MVC, winning at Missouri St. and Bradley, but lost at Indiana St. and Loyola Chicago, the two most difficult opponents UNI had to face in the valley. To add three quad 3 losses (at Southern Illinois, at Illinois St., and vs. Drake today in Arch Madness) onto their resume, did Northern Iowa truly establish themselves as a step above the rest of the conference? 

While Belmont did get in last year as an at-large without any jaw-dropping victories, they had fewer bad losses and won a larger percentage of their games against the top two quads. It's going to be close, but I predict, as of now, that Northern Iowa will be among the first four out.