Bubble Teams Galore
As the first wave of conference tournaments come to a close, the next wave of tournaments get underway. This includes all of the major conferences, and with that comes a lot of bubble teams trying to make a case for their at-large candidacy. Without further ado, let's dive into each team's path to an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament:
Big 12
Locks - Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma
Texas - 19-12 (9-9 Big 12)
The Longhorns went on an unexpected tear to play their way from double digit spots out of the tournament to in, according to most mock brackets. Then they lost at home to Oklahoma St. by 22 points, killing the momentum they acquired from their 5-game win streak. They are squarely on the bubble, and can prove that they belong in the tournament by winning against fellow bubble team, Texas Tech, on Thursday. This will likely be an elimination game for both teams, so Texas is probably out if they lose. Win and odds are that they're in, but they might need to win against Kansas in the semis to erase any doubts.
Texas Tech - 18-13 (9-9 Big 12)
The Red Raiders have largely the same situation as Texas: they're right on the bubble due to a poor 3-10 record vs quad 1 (Longhorns have a slightly better 5-8 showing), and a mere 10-13 vs the top 3 quads. The only thing different is that Texas Tech is on its way out of the bracket and Texas was trying to make its way in. If they lose against Texas they're out, no questions asked. If the Red Raiders do win, that might be enough to push them back into the field, but they'll be more reliant than the Longhorns on winning against Kansas to secure a spot in the tournament field.
Oklahoma St. - 17-14 (7-11 Big 12)
The Cowboys have quietly amassed a fringe at-large profile, and they have the opportunity in the conference tournament to make a very realistic case for an at-large bid. They are only 3-9 against quad 1, and 14-14 vs the top 3 quads, but both of those marks are better than Texas Tech, who's still in the majority of mock brackets (not in mine, however). Oklahoma St. will not make the tournament today, but if they beat Iowa St. and then Kansas, things could get interesting. The Cowboys may still need a 3rd win to get an at-large berth, but a win over Kansas alone gives Oklahoma St. a chance to launch itself into the projected field.
Big East
Locks - Creighton, Seton Hall, Villanova, Butler, Providence
Marquette - 18-12 (8-10 Big East)
Just a few weeks ago, the Golden Eagles were projected as a 6-seed, and arguably the 4th best team in the Big East. They are still in the tournament as of today, but there is a small chance that the committee looks at their losing streak as of late and omits them. Their wins are most likely too good for them to not make the tournament, but they should at least be competitive against Seton Hall to assure themselves that they'll be going dancing. If not, the Golden Eagles have to question whether they'll really hear their name called.
Xavier - 19-12 (8-10 Big East)
A heartbreaking loss to Butler (on Kamar Baldwin's game winning 3) puts the Musketeers in a bit of a precarious position. Their resume is very similar to Texas Tech's: only 3 quad 1 wins, double-digit quad one losses, and no losses outside of the top two quads. This team is also right on the bubble, and a loss to DePaul probably pushes them outside the projected field. With a win, they get a chance to defeat Villanova and solidify themselves in the tournament, rather than leaving it up to chance.
ACC
Locks - Florida St, Duke, Louisville, Virginia
North Carolina St. - 19-12 (10-10 ACC)
There is perhaps no resume which is more bubbly than that of the Wolfpack. They have a respectable 4-5 quad 1 record, which includes wins over Duke and at UVA, but they also have two quad 3 losses. They must not suffer another one at the hands of Pittsburgh if NC State wants to go dancing. Win that and they get to play Duke to all but punch their ticket no the NCAA Tournament. Lose that game though, and NC St. is looking at a near 50/50 shot to make the tourney.
Pac-12
Locks - Oregon, Colorado, Arizona, USC
Arizona St. - 20-11 (11-7 Pac-12)
The Sun Devils are basically locks to make it, but there is a single scenario in which things get dicey: say Washington St. upsets Colorado and then pulls off another upset over Arizona St. The Sun Devils will have suffered their first quad 3 loss with a 9-11 record against the top two quads. Other than that, Arizona St. should be good to go for the NCAA Tournament.
Stanford - 20-11 (9-9 Pac-12)
After losing 7 of 8 and playing their way out of the tournament, Stanford pushed themselves back into the bubble conversation, and back in the tournament according to most mock brackets. If they want to keep their spot in the big dance, they must not lose to California in the first round. That doesn't completely assure they'll be in the tournament, however, but a win over UCLA in the quarterfinals would.
UCLA - 19-12 (12-6 Pac-12)
The Bruins have had an incredible turnaround after starting 8-9, yet they're still right on the cut-line. Assuming they face Stanford in the quarterfinals, one win is all UCLA should need to hear their name called on selection Sunday. If California pulls off the upset, the Bruins will probably need two wins in the Pac-12 tournament to feel secure, and a loss to the Golden Bears (which would be their 3rd quad 3/4 loss of the season) likely pushes them out after climbing their way back in.
To be continued...
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