More Bubble Teams
During last night's post, I covered teams hovering near the bubble whose conference tournaments will end on the 14th. Today, I'll be looking at the teams from conferences that won't punch their automatic bid until Selection Sunday. Without further ado, let's take a look:
Atlantic 10
Locks - Dayton
Richmond - 24-7 (14-4 A10)
This is another team that's right on the cut-line. Some think that they'll have to get the automatic bid to secure their spot, but I am not of that sentiment. They have a 6-6 mark against the top 2 quads, and a 3-4 record vs quad 1, both of which are better than most of their bubble counterparts. I think Richmond only has to win at least one quad 2 game in the A10 tournament, but getting to the finals should all but secure their spot in the big dance. Go one and done, however, and things look iffy.
Saint Louis - 23-8 (12-6 A10)
Not Rhode Island, not VCU, but Saint Louis has the next best odds of getting an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. Sure, it's a long shot, but they have a chance! Assuming the Bilikens beat whomever faces them in the conference quarterfinals, odds are that they will face Dayton for the opportunity at a resume-building win. It's not completely out of the question either, as Saint Louis pushed the Flyers to overtime at home and only lost by 6 in Dayton. With that win, the Bilikens would have a 3-5 record against quad 1, which would then include a neutral court affair over Dayton and road wins over Richmond and Rhode Island. It won't be Rhode Island and VCU (unless one of them wins the automatic bid), but there's a slight chance that the Atlantic 10 still sends 2 teams to join Dayton in the big dance.
SEC
Locks - Kentucky, Auburn
Florida - 19-12 (11-7 SEC)
The Gators are essentially a lock, and would have been had they not blown the game against Kentucky. The only way I can see them not making the tournament would be if there were to lose their first SEC tourney match-up to either Georgia or Ole Miss, and even then this squad is likely safe. Win that game, and they're through. Win more, and Florida can start making a case for a good seed in the NCAA Tournament.
LSU - 21-10 (12-6 SEC)
I know what you're thinking: why is LSU not a lock? The answer is frankly quite simple. When looking at the Tigers' resume, who have they beaten? Their best win is either at home against Florida, who's likely to be a high single-digit seed, or at Texas, who's on the bubble. Most of their quad 1 contests away from home have been losses, even to teams a bit below the bubble. I think it's more important for them, than others may think, to win at least one game in the SEC tournament to assure themselves that they'll be dancing. If not, the committee may rear its ugly head on Sunday.
Mississippi St. - 20-11 (11-7 SEC)
The Bulldogs are still a longshot to reach the big dance, but good news for them is that they have a bracket that allows them to make up some ground. With only two quad 1 wins (compared to 7 losses), Mississippi St. needs some more resume-defining wins. Their first matchup will presumably be against Florida, who the Bulldogs have already beaten on the road this season. Win that and the Bulldogs are probably still on the outside looking in, but they would have a chance against Kentucky (provided the Wildcats don't go one and done). If Mississippi St. reaches the SEC finals by defeating Kentucky, they should hear their name called on Selection Sunday.
Arkansas - 19-12 (7-11 SEC)
The Razorbacks have a profile which will be extremely difficult for the committee to evaluate. On the surface, their resume is not good enough, but Isaiah Joe, one of the top shooting guards, was injured for five games, all of which they lost. Three of those five losses (vs. Auburn, at Missouri, vs. Mississippi St.) came in overtime or by a single point. The committee may choose to discount those close losses without their star player, but they haven't exactly been super impressive with him back: the Razorbacks have gone 3-2, winning the home games over Missouri, Tennessee, and LSU, but losing the road contests against Georgia and Texas A&M. If Arkansas wants to push for an at-large bid, they must win at least 3 games to show that they're a different team with Joe back, and to improve their paltry 6-12 record vs quads 1 and 2. Anything short and they'll be in the NIT.
American
Locks - N/A
Houston - 23-8 (13-5 AAC)
Despite being a projected 7-seed in many mock brackets, I don't think Houston is a lock to dance. They have a 2-5 record vs quad 1, and having your best wins at South Carolina and Wichita St. don't exactly scream surefire tournament team. They are, however, looking more comfortable than most of the bubble. As long as they don't suffer a bad loss in the AAC tourney, the Cougars will be going dancing, but maybe a higher seed than they would've liked.
Wichita St. - 23-8 (11-7 AAC)
The Shockers are really good at maintaining the status quo. While normally that's a good thing, that's not so great for a team trying to receive an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Wichita St. wins the games it's supposed to win, and loses the games it's supposed to lose. Like Houston, their quad 1 record is 2-5, with wins at Oklahoma St. and UConn. For what it's worth, both of those wins are looking better by the day, and Wichita St. is still yet to suffer a quad 3 or 4 loss (worst loss is at Temple), but the Shockers' resume still needs some more oomph to it. They can add some oomph to it if they win over Cincinnati in the American tournament, but I have a hard time seeing Wichita St. getting an at-large bid if they lose at the hands of the Bearcats for a 3rd time. They do have a very reasonable shot at an NCAA Tournament berth should they finally beat Cincy.
Cincinnati - 20-10 (13-5 AAC)
It's a bit difficult to see where the Bearcats stand right now: even though Cincinnati is in the majority of projected brackets, they also are the top seed in the American, so many people have them in as an automatic bid (myself included). They have a poor 2-6 quad 1 record, but their wins (vs. Houston and at Wichita St.) are better than those of the Shockers. What hurts the Bearcats more, however, are their 4 quad 3 losses, which more or less overshadow their perfect 7-0 record vs quad 2. They'll have to beat Wichita St. (in an elimination game for both teams) to have any shot of an at-large bid, and even then Cincinnati might need to get the auto-bid.
Memphis - 21-10 (10-8 AAC)
After being projected as a preseason top 15 team, the Tigers have immensely disappointed. Not only are they not a top 25 team, but they're also not even on the right side of the bubble. Like every team in the American listed above, Memphis has just two quad 1 wins, and like Houston and Wichita St, they have five quad 1 losses. Also unfortunate for Memphis is that they have three quad 3 losses, but theirs are nowhere near as bad as Cincinnati's. Luckily for the Tigers, they caught a good bracket which allows them to potentially elevate themselves back into the projected field. If Memphis defeats Tulsa and Houston on the way to the AAC tourney finals, they can squeeze into the tournament field. Falling short of picking up a couple good wins in the conference tourney and they'll certainly be playing in the NIT instead.
Big Ten
Locks - Michigan St, Maryland, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Michigan, Penn State, Iowa, Illinois
Rutgers - 20-11 (11-9 Big Ten)
The Scarlet Knights have an extremely polarizing resume: a win over Michigan gives them very high odds at a single digit seed, but a loss will force them to sweat it out on Selection Sunday. Even with the clutch overtime win at Purdue, Rutgers only has two wins away from home all season. The committee's standard has been three wins away from home to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament, so Rutgers isn't safe despite wins over Seton Hall, Wisconsin, Penn St, and Maryland. They kept coming close to beating good teams on the road, but never did until Purdue, who's still (for now) not a projected tournament team. With at least one win, Rutgers will be a good seed in the big dance. Lose to Michigan, however, and they could be anywhere from a 10-seed to out of the tournament with their only wins away from home coming at Nebraska and at Purdue in OT.
Indiana - 19-12 (9-11 Big Ten)
The Hoosiers have one job: don't lose to Nebraska. Win and they're most likely in. Lose and things get interesting. Indiana doesn't have a bad loss yet, but they struggle to win away from home, like Rutgers. Their situation isn't quite as dire, as they have neutral court victories over UConn and Notre Dame, as well as road wins over Nebraska and Minnesota. A 4-10 quad 1 record doesn't look too impressive, but keep in mind that wins over Iowa and Penn St. technically qualify as quad 2. Assuming Indiana wins against Nebraska, they'll be in the field with a few spots to spare.
Purdue - 16-15 (9-11 Big Ten)
For all of the power conference teams with mediocre records that still have a shot to dance, Purdue is the greatest offender. The committee has never given an at-large berth to a team with worse than a .533 winning percentage (Purdue is currently at .516), so the Boilermakers have work to do. Good news for them is by being in the Big Ten, every game is an opportunity to pick up a big win to boost their resume. As the conference is so strong this year, they might be able to squeeze in with an 18-16 (.529) record. With a win over Ohio St. and Michigan St. (who the Boilermakers already beat by 29) in the conference tournament, Purdue would make a very convincing case for an at-large bid with an 18-16 record that would boast 6 quad 1 wins, which would include wins away from home against Indiana, Iowa, and the aforementioned Buckeyes and Spartans. Going 2-1 in the Big Ten tourney is far from a guaranteed shot in the big dance, for they might need to win three in the tournament, or there's a very real possibility that 16 losses is too many for the committee to accept as an at-large.
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