Who to Look Out For in the Early Conference Tournaments
It’s that time of year again! Selection Sunday is less than two weeks away, which means that conference tournaments are about to start. While most automatic bids are clinched the day before or the day of Selection Sunday (including all power conference tourneys), there are still 12 teams who will receive their NCAA Tournament berth by March 11. These consist of the Atlantic Sun, Big South, Colonial, Horizon, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot League, Southern, Summit and West Coast Conference. Most of these conferences will only send a single team dancing no matter what happens, but I’ll be looking at those teams who could potentially (or certainly) earn an at-large bid among the first conferences to punch their bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Atlantic Sun:
Liberty: 27-4 (13-3 A-Sun)
The Liberty Flames probably need the automatic bid in order to go dancing, but in case they lose in the conference tournament, all hope is not lost. They’ve only had two opportunities against the top two quads all season, which they split. They lost their only Q1 match at LSU, and won their Q2 match-up on a neutral court against Akron. It’s difficult to judge them because they’ve played so few games against decent competition, and a NET ranking in the mid 60s plus their three Q3/4 losses don’t look great either. It is inevitable that they were to pick up some bad losses, however, because the A-Sun only provides Q4 opportunities outside of North Florida, whose contests qualify as quad 3. Luckily for the Flames, they have not lost at home this season, and all they have to do is win 3 consecutive home games in the conference tournament to punch their ticket. It would be amazing to see them make the big dance as an at-large, but Liberty should really just get the auto-bid, earn a 12 seed, and maybe pull off another first-round upset.
Big South: N/A
Colonial: N/A
Horizon: N/A
Missouri Valley:
Northern Iowa: 25-5 (14-4 MVC)
Unlike Liberty, UNI has a realistic shot should they fall short in the conference tournament. There are a lot of things to like about the Panthers’ resume. First, a gaudy top-40 NET ranking should serve them well in the eyes of the selection committee. They also boast a 5-3 record against the top 2 quads, including a win over Colorado in Boulder. That record is misleading, however, as most of their games against Q1 and 2 are in-conference road games against teams outside the top 90 NET. They have two quad 3 losses, which isn’t the end of the world considering how many games of Q3 or worse they have. What’s more concerning Northern Iowa’s tournament prospects is how they fared against the Missouri Valley’s toughest competition away from home. Besides UNI, Loyola Chicago and Indiana St. are the only MVC teams inside the top 100 NET, and the Panthers lost on the road against both of those teams. They did win the conference’s other quad two contests at least, which were at Bradley, Missouri St., and Valpo. Their non-conference victories at Colorado and on a neutral court vs. South Carolina really add to their case for an at-large bid (if necessary). Mock brackets tend to place UNI as either a No. 12 or No. 11 seed. I currently have them as a 12, but above the last two at-larges right now. They might be able to make it if they lose in the MVC final, but I wouldn’t bet on what appears to be 50/50 odds.
Mountain West:
San Diego State: 28-1 (17-1 MWC)
The Aztecs were so close to an undefeated season, but UNLV just had to best them on Feb. 22. Despite that loss, SDSU is fine. Their NET ranking is still 4 and they have very high quality wins away from home. Some are arguing that San Diego State has fallen to a No. 2 seed, but someone hasn’t “taken” it yet from the Aztecs so they should still be on the 1-line. If they don’t win the MWC tourney, SDSU will almost certainly be a 2 seed. Even if they go into the NCAA Tournament with an exceptional 31-1 record, there is a chance that some power conference team like Maryland, Florida State, or Seton Hall wins out until the tournament and takes the final No. 1 seed from the Aztecs. That is not a bad thing by any means, however, because then they would be the No. 2 seed in the West presumably going against top seeded Gonzaga, which sounds more appealing than being the No. 1 seed in the East and having to travel to New York to play some east coast juggernaut. It may not be the worst thing for them if they lose.
Utah State: 23-8 (12-6 MWC)
Before leap day, the general consensus was that the Utah St. Aggies were a few spots above the cut line. Then they lost at New Mexico on Feb. 29. It goes in the books as a quad 3 loss, their second of the season. They are now squarely on the bubble, and currently my last team in the field. They are massively helped by their neutral court wins over Florida and LSU, but they didn’t prove themselves to clearly be the second best team in the Mountain West. They understandably lost both games against San Diego St., but only went 1-2 in Q2 road contests against UNLV, Boise State, and Colorado St. They also have a win at North Texas, which gives them a 4-6 record against the top 2 quads and 2-4 versus Q1. I don’t think they necessarily need to get the auto-bid, but they need to get some meaningful win that adds to their resume. If they can meet Nevada or Colorado State in the conference semis and add another Q2 victory to their resume, that would arguably be enough to get the at-large. If they lose before the MWC final, they’re likely NIT-bound. This team has close to a 50/50 shot to receive an at-large bid, but upsetting SDSU and getting the auto-bid would put an end to the question.
Northeast: N/A
Ohio Valley: N/A
Patriot League: N/A
Southern:
East Tennessee State: 27-4 (16-2 SoCon)
The Buccaneers have amassed an impressive resume, and probably can afford to not win their conference tournament and still make the NCAA Tournament. Like Utah State, they have a marquee win over LSU, except ETSU’s is a true road win. The narrative for most mid-major teams vying for an at-large bid seems to be that their wins don’t outweigh their slew of bad losses. Good news for this ETSU squad is that they only have 1 Q4 loss and no Q3 losses, though some teams have come close. To go along with their win at LSU, the Buccaneers have also won 3 of 4 against the solid SoCon competition of UNC Greensboro and Furman. All of these reasons explain their top 40 NET ranking, which also explains why they’re generally a No. 11 seed in mock brackets, a few spots above the cut line. I also agree that they are at the top of the 11-line, but if they win the auto-bid they should be a No. 10 seed. Even a loss in the conference tourney shouldn’t knock them out of the projected field provided it isn’t a Q4 loss. As recommended for all bubble teams from weaker conferences, getting the auto-bid will be the only way to truly solidify a bid, but this squad is safer than most.
Summit: N/A
West Coast:
Gonzaga: 29-2 (15-1 WCC)
You know the drill by now: Gonzaga is the class of the mid majors once again. It’s not even surprising that they’re projected for yet another No. 1 seed. Their only two losses are on a neutral court vs. Michigan and at BYU, which are not bad by any means. The Zags also have quality wins over the likes of Oregon and Arizona, and are simply dominant in some games, even on the road. As long as they don’t collapse in the conference tournament, this team is getting its 2nd consecutive No. 1 seed.
BYU: 24-7 (13-3 WCC)
The Cougars are getting back to the tournament for the first time in five years; the question is how high will they be seeded. Right now, they’re being slotted for either a No. 5 or a No. 6 seed despite a couple questionable losses, highlighted by their home win over WCC juggernaut Gonzaga. BYU can win away from home too, with a road win over Houston and neutral court victories over UCLA and Utah St. Like the Zags, the Cougars get a triple bye in the conference tournament, and will comfortably in the tournament no matter what happens. Even with a loss right off the bat, I can’t see them getting any worse than maybe a No. 8 seed. If they can beat Gonzaga again, their top 10 NET ranking will only rise, and they can very realistically get a top 4 seed. A No. 6 seed is a safe bet for this squad.
Saint Mary’s: 23-7 (11-5 WCC)
Barring a major collapse and severe oversight by the selection committee, the Gaels are returning to the big dance. They have neutral court wins over Wisconsin and Arizona St. (by 40 points!). They split the season series with BYU, but got demolished by Gonzaga, and have an odd home loss to Santa Clara. All of this amounts to a No. 8 or No. 9 seed (I have them on the 8-line). As long as Saint Mary’s avoids a loss before arriving at BYU, they’ll maintain a single digit seed, but a loss in the first game should only knock them down to a No. 11 seed at the absolute worst. The Gaels have some breathing room, and the West Coast Conference will send 3 teams dancing this year.
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