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Saturday, February 19, 2022

Initial Thoughts on Selection Sunday Preview

With the NFL season wrapping up, it's now full speed ahead into college basketball mode! I thought the Super Bowl was a solid game to watch, albeit overshadowed by the rest of the playoffs. When I look back on this season, I'm going to remember that Chiefs-Bills game, and maybe even the Raiders-Chargers regular season finale. That's enough football talk for now, let's dive into the top-16.

Nailed the Top Line

Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona, Kansas. Those are the top four teams in that particular order, and I completely agree with the committee here. The Zags may have dropped a couple early, but find themselves back on top after everyone else ahead of them fell, most recently the Auburn Tigers to Arkansas in overtime. Auburn is still the number two team in the country, who is still yet to lose in regulation (also lost to UConn in overtime). Of these teams, Arizona is probably the one who can least afford a loss if they wish to remain a top seed, for the Pac-12 lacks depth and the Wildcats only have one more Quad 1 opportunity before the conference tournament (at USC).

Overreliance on the NET

Outside the top line, I start disagreeing with the committee's placements. I notice a lot of teams within the same conference that I would have difficulty deciding between who to place higher, but the committee sees something different. Take the Big East for example: even with Providence's home loss to Villanova, they still boast a better Quad 1 record than the Wildcats, both have equally impressive wins away from home, and both have one Quad 2 loss. I'm guessing the reason for their NET disparity (5 vs 29) is that the Friars have won a lot of close games, even against weak opponents. Their 18 and 32 point losses to Virginia and Marquette respectively don't help either, but I'm still surprised that there are 5 teams in between Villanova and Providence.

Even more surprising to me, however, is that Illinois is ranked above Wisconsin. The Illini are 4-5 and 9-7 against Quad 1 and 2 respectively, while the Badgers are 8-4 and 4-1. Illinois' best road wins are over Indiana, Iowa, and Northwestern (though they are winning at Michigan State as we speak), while Wisconsin has won away from home against several solid tournament teams (Houston, Purdue, Saint Mary's, Michigan State). The only thing I can see that Illinois has over the Badgers is that their NET ranking is 14 instead of 20. I probably wouldn't have the Illini in the top 16 at all, and would argue their resume is even weaker than that of the Spartans, though that may change quickly assuming Illinois can hold on in East Lansing.

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