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Sunday, February 27, 2022

Stars Have Aligned?

What a wild Saturday in college basketball! While they may have all been on the road, and Kansas wasn't even the favorite against 10th-ranked Baylor, it's still unprecedented to see the top six teams all lose on the same day. However, I turn my attention to a more under-the-radar storyline between mid-major programs who find themselves firmly on the bubble.

BYU's Last Minute Scheduling Efforts

With the Cougars typically shown among the first four out (2nd team out in the bracket matrix), head coach Mark Pope took it upon himself to try and find a team who would be willing to play a non-conference game that would be a resume booster for whoever comes out on top. There aren't many teams who fit this glass slipper, and it doesn't seem like it will come to fruition with only a few days left before the WCC tournament, but it's fun to speculate who could possibly play BYU in an attempt to build of solidify an at-large case.

Most Likely Suspects

As Mark Pope hinted that he would want the game to be a Quad 1 contest for BYU, it rules out any games taking place in Provo. It also probably wouldn't be against any team that would have ample opportunities to pick up marquee wins in their conference tournament, which rules out any teams from power conferences. Two that come to mind are Chattanooga and South Dakota State. Both of these teams sport a top 75 NET-ranking, qualifying road games against these teams as Quad 1 opportunities. Of these two teams, I believe that South Dakota State would be a better fit as they have amounted a better at-large profile by going 18-0 in Summit League play, only suffering two Quad 3/4 losses compared to the Mocs' five. A win for the Jackrabbits in this hypothetical game would add another Quad 2 victory to their resume, putting them at 3-0 against Q2 (won at Stephen F. Austin and on a neutral court against Washington State).

I would think, however, that both teams involved would want the game to be a potential opportunity to pick up a coveted Q1 team, which is why I could see a neutral court affair against a top-50 NET team as a more plausible option. That being said, BYU is the 50th-ranked team at the moment, likely pushing them outside the top-50 in a loss. At first, I thought North Texas may have been the best option for the Cougars; a top-40 NET but is devoid of Quad 1 victories outside of a one-point win at UAB (who also wouldn't be a bad choice for BYU, but is just outside the top 50). The Mean Green will not have any more Q1 opportunities in Conference USA play, so a win here could solidify themselves as a team who deserves to be in the tourney, even without an automatic bid.

After yesterday's contests, there is one team that would be an even better fit for such a matchup: none other than Sister Jean and her Loyola Chicago Ramblers. With an overtime loss at Northern Iowa, Loyola finds themselves as the 4-seed in Arch Madness, officially moving them into at-large consideration. I haven't updated my bracketology following yesterday's historic games, but I see the Ramblers being among my last 4 in, which is probably similar to where others would project them. With only a 13-5 record in Missouri Valley play, they really didn't set themselves apart from the rest of the conference, and it feels eerily similar to the Northern Iowa team that got blasted by Drake in the 2020 MVC tournament. Luckily, these Ramblers are 31st in the NET, and have shown willingness to schedule last minute non-conference games before (did so earlier this season against San Francisco). While it may be too late to schedule such a game against BYU, it could serve as a statement to the committee that Loyola should hear their name called on Selection Sunday regardless of what they do in the MVC tourney. It would also, of course, be a great opportunity for the Cougars to put themselves back on the right side of the bubble.

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