We have officially hit March! With March, there's madness, and you don't even have to wait until Selection Sunday to experience it. Over the next nine days, 12 teams will punch their tickets to the NCAA Tournament. While many of these conferences don't present a club with even a sliver of at-large hope, let's talk about the teams that could make some noise in the big dance.
Ohio Valley Conference
Murray State: 28-2 (18-0 OVC)
With an exciting comeback victory over Southeast Missouri State, the Racers have assured themselves a spot in the upcoming NCAA Tournament even in the worst-case scenario of a first round OVC tourney exit. Though they often started slow against some admittedly terrible competition of the Ohio Valley, this team always got it done and god damn do they know how to close games out. I don't think they could keep it up when March Madness arrives, but when facing the only other solid OVC competition, Belmont, Murray St. blew them out of the water both times. The Racers come to play in big games, as show by their 5-1 record against Q1/2, and they will be a team to watch in the tourney.
Belmont: 25-6 (15-3 OVC)
Coming into conference play, both Belmont and Murray State seemed pretty even and were generally placed right around the cut-line. While the latter played their way into a solid single-digit seed, Belmont has almost no chance of receiving an at-large bid, especially because their only opportunity to pick up a win over Murray St. will be in the OVC tourney final. The Bruins got swept by Racers and also failed to come up with a victory in the Ohio Valley's Quad 2 opportunity, a road contest at Morehead State. This puts them at 4-6 in Q1/2 with wins over Drake, Iona, Chattanooga, and at Saint Louis. All of these teams are, at best, several spots below the cut-line, which doesn't bode well for Belmont. The Bruins still don't have a bad loss, but if they wish to eke out an at-large bid, they're going to have to look really impressive in the semis before losing a close contest to Murray St. Even then, this looks to be a team that will receive a top two seed in the NIT.
Missouri Valley Conference
Loyola Chicago: 22-7 (13-5 MVC)
I still can't believe we're talking about the at-large prospects of the 4-seed in the Missouri Valley tournament, but here we are. The Ramblers looked to be in extremely good shape to get a solid seed in March Madness, but have slumped down the stretch to be firmly on the bubble. That last-minute contest against San Francisco has done dividends to keep Loyola in the conversation, but I can't help but feel that five losses in a conference like this is simply too many to warrant an at-large bid. It doesn't help that they consistently failed to win most of the valley's Quad 2 opportunities, for they are a poor 3-5 against Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Drake, and Bradley, none of which are particularly close to the bubble. If the Ramblers can get Quad 2 victories over Bradley and UNI before losing in the finals of Arch Madness to one of the better teams in the MVC, their 30s NET ranking will certainly keep them in the conversation to be one of the teams selected. Regardless, Loyola should just win their conference tournament and not do what Northern Iowa did a couple years ago.
Southern Conference
Chattanooga: 24-7 (14-4 SoCon)
The at-large case for the Mocs is on life support as a projected 13-seed in mock brackets. A NET ranking of 70 doesn't help either, and 5 Q3/4 losses certainly don't aid Chattanooga in making a convincing case to the committee. However, a 3-2 record against Q1/2 is better than many bubble teams (topped off by a win at bubbly VCU), and they swept Furman and Wofford, the SoCon's two best teams outside of Chattanooga. However, they simply have too many ugly blemishes to be in serious consideration should they falter in tourney play. Assuming they do get the auto-bid, though, the Mocs could be a trendy upset pick.
Summit League
South Dakota State: 27-4 (18-0 Summit)
Alongside Murray State, the Jackrabbits are the only other team in D1 NCAA basketball to make it through their regular season conference schedule without a loss. They played so few games against top competition that their NET ranking is 71 despite having only four losses. They don't have a Quad 1 win, but are 2-2 against the top two quads with a win over Washington St. and at Stephen F. Austin. SDSU presents an interesting at-large case, but the numbers simply don't favor them. I feel like this is a team that would've greatly benefitted from a last minute game against BYU, but assuming the Jackrabbits lose in the Summit League tournament, omission from the big dance will surely elicit a strong negative reaction from Dick Vitale, similar to when Murray State was left out in 2015. And, like those Racers, a 3-seed in the NIT appears rather plausible for this squad, though I hope they just claim the automatic bid and bust some brackets.
West Coast Conference
Gonzaga: 24-3 (13-1 WCC)
What Mark Few has done with Gonzaga is simply unprecedented; he took a team that had never made an NCAA Tournament to 20+ consecutive outings, and they now are consistently among the highest-ranked teams in the nation. The Bulldogs find themselves as the top team in the country after a long game of musical chairs at number one, and even a loss at Saint Mary's couldn't knock them off the top spot. There isn't much more to say here: Gonzaga will be a 1-seed in the big dance, though they may not be number one overall depending on what they and the other juggernauts do down the stretch.
Saint Mary's: 24-6 (12-3 WCC)
A major theme of this season is that the West Coast Conference may be the strongest it has ever been, and Saint Mary's is a large part of that. The Gaels join Gonzaga as the other ranked team out of the WCC, solidifying their spot among the top 25 by beating the Bulldogs in Moraga. They lacked Quad 1 wins for much of the season, but a sweep of San Francisco and a win over Notre Dame aging well puts them at a respectable 5-6 mark against the top quad. With no losses outside of Q1, the Gaels find themselves as a projected 6-seed, and they shouldn't fall too far considering they most likely can't pick up a loss to a worse squad than the sneakily solid Santa Clara Broncos.
San Francisco: 23-8 (10-6 WCC)
Meet the San Francisco Dons! The newest member of relevant WCC teams, San Francisco will likely be the first non Gonzaga/BYU/Saint Mary's team to make the NCAA Tournament since San Diego in 2008. They may have an ugly home loss to Portland and a not-so-great neutral court defeat at the hands of Grand Canyon, but the Dons are 3-5 against Q1 and 8-7 vs Q1/2, highlighted by a neutral court victory over Davidson and a win at BYU. They're also the only team of the non-Gonzaga WCC tourney threats to win at Santa Clara, which is their other Quad 1 win. All of this, combined with the fact that their three non-Q1 losses came by a combined four points, contributes to San Francisco's top 30 NET ranking and a consensus 9/10 seed in mock brackets. They'll most likely face BYU in their WCC tourney opener, which would probably be the highest-pedigree quarterfinal (or whatever you call it) game in the conference's history. Things may get a bit dicey if they lose to the Cougars, but the Dons should remain a few spots above the cut-line. Just don't take a bad loss, San Francisco.
BYU: 21-9 (9-6 WCC)
Perhaps the most bubbly resume in all of college basketball belongs to the team trying to bring four teams out of the West Coast Conference to the big dance for the first time ever. 4-5 against Quad 1, 7-8 against Quads 1 and 2, a terrible loss at Pacific, and a NET ranking of 50. While I may have them among my last four in, other bracketologists have them out, but far from all do. After winning against Saint Mary's and at San Francisco early on in conference play, the Cougars failed to capitalize on their remaining opportunities and almost lost at Loyola Marymount in disastrous fashion, though Pacific remains BYU's only sub-Q2 loss. They may have played themselves back onto the bubble, but BYU has an opportunity to beat San Francisco assuming they can knock off lowly Pacific or LMU in the prior round. I believe the matchup against San Francisco serves as somewhat of an elimination game for the Cougars; should BYU fall, I have a hard time seeing their name called on Selection Sunday given the opportunities left on the table and how they fared down the stretch. Win, however, and expect a shocking four teams to go dancing out of the WCC.
Wrap Up
For those of you who are fans of the Big South, Sun Belt, ASUN, CAA, Horizon, NEC, or Patriot League, I didn't forget about you. The sad fact of the matter is that these conferences don't boast any teams who are competitive for an at-large bid in any way, shape or form. That being said, their conference tournaments should still be exciting watches and I'll try to view what I can.
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