This is a continuation of the previous post where I discussed potential bubble teams whose conference tournaments started on Tuesday. You can view that here.
Big East
Locks: #1 St. John’s, #2 Creighton, #3 UConn, #5 Marquette
#4 Xavier - 21-10 (13-7)
In a weaker Big East, the Musketeers had to win several straight just to get back into the thick of the bubble conversation. Xavier did just that, notching 7 straight heading into the conference tournament. Highlighted by a win at Marquette, no losses outside of the top two quads, and respectable metrics all around, Xavier has made their way into most projected brackets.
However, I’m unsure if the Musketeers have any room for error. First, I am one of the few people that still have Xavier on the wrong side of the bubble. I don’t think they can compare to Ohio State’s six Q1 victories, and I’m expecting the committee to value UC Irvine winning its only Q1 opportunity while Xavier has won one of nine. I’m also not sure why people are so confident that Xavier will be viewed more favorably than North Carolina when their resumes are extremely similar. It feels like a judgement call where I give the slightest edge to the Heels for being undefeated in Q2, with five of those seven victories coming away from home.
Moving onto the Big East Tournament, I think Xavier has to defeat Marquette to have any shot of dancing. At best, they’ll remain just above the cutline while other bubblers have opportunities to improve their resume and pesky bid thieves shrink the bubble. At worst, they’re outside the field with no way to improve. A win over the Golden Eagles would universally put them on the right side of the bubble, but it is not entirely safe from a wilder-than-expected champ week. Assuming a win over Marquette before a loss vs St. John’s, the Musketeers would be 2-9 in Q1 and 10-11 against the top two quadrants. This should be enough to get in, especially with the Q1 victories being away from home against a tournament team, but they need an extra win to erase any doubt of hearing their name called.
#6 Villanova - 18-13 (11-9)
Appearing on some next four out lists throughout much of February, the Wildcats missed some opportunities to clearly place themselves in bubble discussion. They blew a double digit lead at UConn a few weeks ago, and squandered a late lead at Georgetown last week to fall to 3-8 in true road games. Just about the only things going for this resume are the home wins over St. John’s and Marquette, which qualify as Q1, and predictive metrics that are acceptable for an at-large hopeful. What does not help is the 2-7 Q1 record (including 0-5 in Q1-A), 7-10 vs Q1/2, 12-12 against the top three quadrants, and an ugly home loss to Columbia falling under Q4. So, yeah, this team isn’t close, and you don’t need to know their results-based metrics average of 75.3 for me to tell you that.
In theory, Villanova can beat anyone and are probably better than their record suggests. First, I am going to analyze their best case at-large scenario of defeating Seton Hall, UConn, and Creighton before falling to St. John’s in the Big East Championship. This would put them at a respectable 4-8 in Q1 and above .500 in Q1-3, but a sub .500 record in Q1/2 and three losses outside the top two quadrants makes this an auto-bid or bust profile. With no truly elite team in the conference, though (St. John’s is not close to the top six or seven), the Wildcats have a fighting chance of running the table en route to the dance.
Big Ten
Locks: #1 Michigan State, #2 Maryland, #3 Michigan, #4 UCLA, #5 Wisconsin, #6 Purdue, #7 Illinois, #8 Oregon
#9 Indiana - 19-12 (10-10)
The Hooisers gritted out a home victory over Ohio State in a double bubble game to not only remain inside of the projected field, but also stay perfect outside of Q1. Indiana lacks anything close to a bad loss, keeping them relatively safe despite a 4-12 record in Q1 and just a 9-12 combined Q1/2 record. Their resume looks a bit better right now than it may on other days, for two of their three Q1-A victories (vs Purdue and at Ohio State) teeter on the edge of being in the top or bottom half of their quadrant. That’s not to say that a team being 14th vs 16th in the NET truly affects the quality of the win, rather that these wins are not nearly as impressive as the Q1-A label may suggest.
The Hoosiers draw Oregon first in the Big Ten Tournament. Despite only being the third to last team in the tournament according to the Bracket Matrix, they are in almost everyone’s projected field and seem a good bit safer than any bubble teams below them. I feel confident saying that Indiana makes it with a win over Oregon. Even with a loss in the quarterfinals to Michigan State, they would have five Q1 victories and zero bad losses. It gets a bit dicier if they go one and done to the Ducks; even though it’s not a bad loss, Mike Woodson’s squad would fall to 4-13 in Q1 and potentially make their solid results-based metrics a little less solid. That loss would not knock Indiana out of March Madness on its own, but there is enough possibility for movement around the bubble, be it other bubble teams or bid thieves, that IU cannot feel certain about having a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
#10 Ohio State - 17-14 (9-11)
The Buckeyes have had opportunities to cement themselves in the tournament and also play their way out completely, but have managed to do neither. Just this past week, Ohio State eked out a double OT victory at home against Nebraska to remain inside the projected field, while blowing a lead at Indiana a few days later to keep them right on the cutline. As of now, I think their top end wins are too good to leave them out, especially considering that they won critical games in the non-conference as well. Top 40 predictives across the board don’t hurt, either.
Even with the aforementioned factors in Ohio State’s favor, I do not see them making the Big Dance with a loss to Iowa. 17-15 simply isn’t good enough, and neither is 9-15 against Q1/2. Going 1-1 would push them above .500 in Q2, but still leave them at 10-15 vs the top two quads with a loss against Illinois. For the time being, such an outcome should keep the Buckeyes in roughly the same position as they are now (my second to last team in the field), with three Q1-A victories keeping them afloat. They would need some favorable results across the sport to remain in March Madness, certainly producing a sweat. Simply put, Ohio State needs to beat Illinois to feel comfortable about their NCAA Tournament chances.
#16 Nebraska - 17-14 (7-13)
Oh Nebraska, what a fall from grace. It wasn’t long ago that the Cornhuskers were a projected single-digit seed. Then, they proceeded to lose five straight to end the season, including home defeats at the hands of Minnesota and Iowa. Their solid 5-10 mark in Q1 and 3-7 record in Q1-A are more than cancelled out by two Q3 defeats, a sub .500 record in the top three quads, and no metric that places them higher than 50. The ‘huskers are now found among many next four out lists, and would be lucky to stay there since tiebreakers officially make them the 16th-ranked team in the Big Ten. That means Nebraska missed the Big Ten Tournament altogether, losing out to Minnesota, Northwestern, USC, and Iowa. With no way to improve their resume, there is no scenario where the ‘huskers are in the Big Dance.
SEC
Locks: #1 Auburn, #2 Florida, #3 Alabama, #4 Tennessee, #5 Texas A&M, #6 Kentucky, #7 Missouri, #8 Ole Miss, #10 Mississippi State
#9 Arkansas - 19-12 (8-10)
John Calipari’s squad, like many of his former Kentucky teams, underperformed to begin the season before hitting their stride late. After losing massive opportunities at Texas A&M and Auburn, the Razorbacks won four of five, including Q1 victories vs Missouri and at Vanderbilt, and another tournament win over Mississippi State. Interestingly, their only defeat in this stretch was at the hands of the league’s cellar dweller in South Carolina, but most brackets have them avoiding Dayton with five Q1 victories and every metric ranking them between 39 and 46.
However, there are concerns for the Hogs’ profile, especially if they lose today to South Carolina. The Q2 loss would push them below .500 in Q2, below .500 in Q1-3, and five games below .500 (8-13) against the top two quadrants. Even with good metrics across the board, a loss to the gamecocks would be an uncomfortable sweat. Their 5-9 Q1 record certainly separates them from other bubble teams, and I’m expecting the committee to see beyond quadrant boundaries with their profile. Just take a look at their wins: most people would give Vanderbilt a top 40 overall seed, and top 25 for Michigan, but those wins do not qualify as Q1-A given their relatively low NET rankings. Their victories against Georgia and Mississippi State also barely do not qualify as Q1. With so many high-end wins, I anticipate the committee giving their profile a good read, but they need to defeat South Carolina to feel completely safe.
#11 Georgia - 20-11 (8-10)
After a 2-8 stretch in conference play without a win in the top two quadrants, the Bulldogs have roared back, winning four straight to storm back into the tournament field. Even with a measly 4-10 record in Q1, Georgia finds itself as a projected 9-seed thanks to elite home wins over Florida and Kentucky, topped off with a victory over St. John’s in Atlantis (which has aged incredibly well). They are also almost unscathed outside of the top quad, with the only “blemish” coming at home to Mississippi State.
Georgia should be safe in the event of an opening round loss to Oklahoma. Such a result would push them to 9-12 against Q1/2 and .500 versus the top three quadrants. These marks are comparable to, or better than, other teams fighting for their tournament lives, and the SEC schedule means their resume is that much more weighted toward the top quadrant. They are top 38 in every team sheet metric, and a loss to Oklahoma will not significantly move the needle. They may be a double digit seed, but I’ve seen enough; the ‘dogs are going dancing.
#12 Vanderbilt - 20-11 (8-10)
The Commodores closed the regular season with losses to Arkansas in Nashville and Georgia in Athens, but their three preceding victories more than outweigh the recent defeats. Vandy badly needed a marquee win away from home, but did not have that until they held on at Texas A&M. The nature of that win moved them up all the way from Dayton to the 9-line by my account, and they currently project as a 10-seed according to the Bracket Matrix.
Let’s assume the worst case scenario where Vandy loses today to Texas; they would sit at 5-9 in Q1, 9-12 in Q1/2, and .500 against Q1-3. Those latter two marks are identical to Georgia, and they’ve performed better in Q1 contests, but I don’t think they are nearly as safe due to performing worse in every team sheet metric and lacking the elite non-conference win that the Bulldogs have. Other than that, the similarity in their resumes is why Vanderbilt is merely a couple spots below Georgia. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where the ‘dores are not selected for the NCAA Tournament, but they are not 100% shielded from a wild Championship Week. Having said that, this profile is very close to a lock, and one win will do the trick.
#13 Texas - 17-14 (6-12)
Every time it looks like the Longhorns are going to play their way entirely out of the bubble picture, they get a huge, unexpected win. And every time they have an opportunity to claim their spot inside the tournament field, they fail to hold serve. Texas brought themselves right back to the cutline with a victory at Mississippi State, but lost in Austin to fellow bubbler Oklahoma to stay outside the projected field. They are 10-14 against the top three quads and 6 games below .500 against Q1/2, which should be a non-starter, but that shows the state of the bubble this year.
Luckily for the ‘horns, they play in a conference where every game is an opportunity to pick up a Q1 victory. Their path involves Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Tennessee before a likely matchup with top-overall seed Auburn. Considering the volatility of conference tournament game importance, I would not say Texas is a lock unless they reach the SEC Championship. I would imagine the Longhorns sneak into March Madness with a semis appearance, for that would put them at 8-11 in Q1 with victories over Tennessee, Texas A&M (x2), Kentucky, and road wins against Mississippi State and Oklahoma. Even with a 3-4 record in Q2, the quantity of elite victories should be too much to leave them out, and there’s a scenario where wins over Vandy and A&M is all it takes for Texas to dance. There’s a wide range of outcomes with Rodney Terry’s team, so I’ll outline it plainly: two wins to have a chance, three to feel good, and four to erase any doubt of an NCAA Tournament appearance.
#14 Oklahoma - 19-12 (6-12)
Porter Moser’s squad is going to be a litmus test for a few questions that the selection committee will have to answer on March 16. Can a team go 6-12 in conference and make the tournament? Can they get an at-large with only two true road wins? Will the committee deny a team with a perfect non-conference record that includes three Q1 victories? With respect to the Sooners, I believe those answers are yes, yes, and no. The selection committee does not explicitly consider conference records, nor does it appear on their team sheets. Historically, teams have needed three true road victories to get an at-large bid, but Oklahoma has five neutral site wins to go along with their victories in Fayetteville and Austin. Their most recent win at Texas was vital to closing this hole in their resume, making the committee hard pressed to leave a team out with such an incredible non-conference, especially after openly underseeding Mountain West teams for “building their entire profile in conference play.”
Often found among the last four in projected brackets, I believe the Sooners are safer than most and have them on my 10-line. Despite a Q3 loss to LSU, their 6-10 and 10-11 marks against Q1 and Q1/2, respectively, are better than other power conference bubble teams. I find that the strength of this profile is much closer to Georgia and Vandy than Baylor and Indiana, and a win against Georgia would all but shore up their spot in the Big Dance. Even if OU goes one and done, the 12-13 record against the top three quads would be the main argument against their inclusion in March Madness. I guess you could also say that the Sooners lack a truly elite win, but they have three wins away from home against top-half-of-the-bracket teams in Louisville, Michigan, and Arizona. 6-11 is quite a good Q1 mark compared to the rest of the bubble, and they don’t have the poor Q2 record that a team like Arkansas or Ohio State boasts. With several wins over tournament teams and metrics between 35 and 50, Oklahoma should be in regardless of what happens today, but, like Vanderbilt, they may fall victim to a wild Champ Week if they don’t take care of business vs UGA. Just get a win and we don’t have to ask this question again.
To be continued...
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