Stars Have Aligned?

What a wild Saturday in college basketball! While they may have all been on the road, and Kansas wasn't even the favorite against 10th-ranked Baylor, it's still unprecedented to see the top six teams all lose on the same day. However, I turn my attention to a more under-the-radar storyline between mid-major programs who find themselves firmly on the bubble.

BYU's Last Minute Scheduling Efforts

With the Cougars typically shown among the first four out (2nd team out in the bracket matrix), head coach Mark Pope took it upon himself to try and find a team who would be willing to play a non-conference game that would be a resume booster for whoever comes out on top. There aren't many teams who fit this glass slipper, and it doesn't seem like it will come to fruition with only a few days left before the WCC tournament, but it's fun to speculate who could possibly play BYU in an attempt to build of solidify an at-large case.

Most Likely Suspects

As Mark Pope hinted that he would want the game to be a Quad 1 contest for BYU, it rules out any games taking place in Provo. It also probably wouldn't be against any team that would have ample opportunities to pick up marquee wins in their conference tournament, which rules out any teams from power conferences. Two that come to mind are Chattanooga and South Dakota State. Both of these teams sport a top 75 NET-ranking, qualifying road games against these teams as Quad 1 opportunities. Of these two teams, I believe that South Dakota State would be a better fit as they have amounted a better at-large profile by going 18-0 in Summit League play, only suffering two Quad 3/4 losses compared to the Mocs' five. A win for the Jackrabbits in this hypothetical game would add another Quad 2 victory to their resume, putting them at 3-0 against Q2 (won at Stephen F. Austin and on a neutral court against Washington State).

I would think, however, that both teams involved would want the game to be a potential opportunity to pick up a coveted Q1 team, which is why I could see a neutral court affair against a top-50 NET team as a more plausible option. That being said, BYU is the 50th-ranked team at the moment, likely pushing them outside the top-50 in a loss. At first, I thought North Texas may have been the best option for the Cougars; a top-40 NET but is devoid of Quad 1 victories outside of a one-point win at UAB (who also wouldn't be a bad choice for BYU, but is just outside the top 50). The Mean Green will not have any more Q1 opportunities in Conference USA play, so a win here could solidify themselves as a team who deserves to be in the tourney, even without an automatic bid.

After yesterday's contests, there is one team that would be an even better fit for such a matchup: none other than Sister Jean and her Loyola Chicago Ramblers. With an overtime loss at Northern Iowa, Loyola finds themselves as the 4-seed in Arch Madness, officially moving them into at-large consideration. I haven't updated my bracketology following yesterday's historic games, but I see the Ramblers being among my last 4 in, which is probably similar to where others would project them. With only a 13-5 record in Missouri Valley play, they really didn't set themselves apart from the rest of the conference, and it feels eerily similar to the Northern Iowa team that got blasted by Drake in the 2020 MVC tournament. Luckily, these Ramblers are 31st in the NET, and have shown willingness to schedule last minute non-conference games before (did so earlier this season against San Francisco). While it may be too late to schedule such a game against BYU, it could serve as a statement to the committee that Loyola should hear their name called on Selection Sunday regardless of what they do in the MVC tourney. It would also, of course, be a great opportunity for the Cougars to put themselves back on the right side of the bubble.

Presidents Day Bracketology Update

Finally, an update is here almost a month later! I've admittedly found it increasingly difficult to sort around the bubble, so here's to hoping more teams can clearly play their way in or out of the field. As always, you can check the full sheet out here

1	Gonzaga	Arizona	Auburn	Kansas
2	Baylor	Kentucky	Purdue	Duke
3	Texas Tech	Illinois	Villanova	Tennessee
4	Wisconsin	UCLA	Providence	Texas
5	Alabama	Houston	UConn	Ohio State
6	Michigan State	Arkansas	Marquette	LSU
7	Xavier	USC	Murray State	Iowa State
8	Saint Mary's	Iowa	Colorado State	Seton Hall
9	Boise State	Wyoming	TCU	Miami (FL)
10	San Francisco	Davidson	Creighton	San Diego State
11	Loyola Chicago	Notre Dame	SMU	North Texas
12	Wake Forest/Dayton	Memphis/Michigan	Iona	New Mexico State
13	South Dakota State	Chattanooga	Toledo	Vermont
14	Wagner	Northern Iowa	Princeton	Montana State
15	Jacksonville State	Colgate	UNC Wilmington	Texas State
16	Cleveland State	Norfolk State	Long Beach St/Longwood	New Orleans/Alcorn St.

Initial Thoughts on Selection Sunday Preview

With the NFL season wrapping up, it's now full speed ahead into college basketball mode! I thought the Super Bowl was a solid game to watch, albeit overshadowed by the rest of the playoffs. When I look back on this season, I'm going to remember that Chiefs-Bills game, and maybe even the Raiders-Chargers regular season finale. That's enough football talk for now, let's dive into the top-16.

Nailed the Top Line

Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona, Kansas. Those are the top four teams in that particular order, and I completely agree with the committee here. The Zags may have dropped a couple early, but find themselves back on top after everyone else ahead of them fell, most recently the Auburn Tigers to Arkansas in overtime. Auburn is still the number two team in the country, who is still yet to lose in regulation (also lost to UConn in overtime). Of these teams, Arizona is probably the one who can least afford a loss if they wish to remain a top seed, for the Pac-12 lacks depth and the Wildcats only have one more Quad 1 opportunity before the conference tournament (at USC).

Overreliance on the NET

Outside the top line, I start disagreeing with the committee's placements. I notice a lot of teams within the same conference that I would have difficulty deciding between who to place higher, but the committee sees something different. Take the Big East for example: even with Providence's home loss to Villanova, they still boast a better Quad 1 record than the Wildcats, both have equally impressive wins away from home, and both have one Quad 2 loss. I'm guessing the reason for their NET disparity (5 vs 29) is that the Friars have won a lot of close games, even against weak opponents. Their 18 and 32 point losses to Virginia and Marquette respectively don't help either, but I'm still surprised that there are 5 teams in between Villanova and Providence.

Even more surprising to me, however, is that Illinois is ranked above Wisconsin. The Illini are 4-5 and 9-7 against Quad 1 and 2 respectively, while the Badgers are 8-4 and 4-1. Illinois' best road wins are over Indiana, Iowa, and Northwestern (though they are winning at Michigan State as we speak), while Wisconsin has won away from home against several solid tournament teams (Houston, Purdue, Saint Mary's, Michigan State). The only thing I can see that Illinois has over the Badgers is that their NET ranking is 14 instead of 20. I probably wouldn't have the Illini in the top 16 at all, and would argue their resume is even weaker than that of the Spartans, though that may change quickly assuming Illinois can hold on in East Lansing.

Subtly on the Bubble

Good evening everyone! No, it's not a bracketology post; that will have to wait for another time. I apologize for not updating my projected seedings, but I have noticed a couple teams that may present serious cases for at-large births while being under the radar. Without further ado, let's talk about them:

SMU

The Mustangs mustered a huge win yesterday over AAC powerhouse Houston in Moody Coliseum. They trailed most of the game, but managed to take a lead late and hold on despite doing their best to choke the game away. SMU has a couple ugly losses to Mizzou and Loyola Marymount, but they also possess a 4-4 record against the top two quads, which now includes a marquee victory over Houston to go along with a win at Memphis. They still have work to do, but the Mustangs have a very reasonable shot of being the second team out of the American.

Santa Clara

This has been by far the best year for the West Coast Conference in recent memory. As of now, the conference has 4 projected tournament teams with San Francisco joining the usual suspects of Gonzaga, BYU, and Saint Mary's. However, this Broncos squad is slowly creeping into at-large conversation, creating potential for a, practically unheard of, 5-bid WCC. Like SMU, Santa Clara has its share of bad losses (vs. UC Irvine, at Cal) and quality wins (home against Saint Mary's and BYU, neutral court victory over TCU). They may only be 3-5 against the top 2 quads, but their Q1/2 contests have undoubtedly been more difficult than SMUs. This team plays lockdown defense and I think the WCC should be scared of a desperate Santa Clara team with a realistic shot of playing their way into the tournament.

The Importance of Free Throws

Hello everyone! I know it has been a while since I last posted, so I'll simply update you on games that I've been watching as of late.

If there's something that I've definitely noticed, it's that free throws are crucial down the stretch. St. John's was giving Providence all they could handle, making quick bucket after quick bucket and extending the game. However, the Friars made all of their free throws at the end of the game and never let the Red Storm have the ball down one possession.

Yesterday, I was watching a bit of mid-major (or arguably low-major) ball between Oakland and Northern Kentucky. NKU carved out a leaved towards the end of the second half, but they missed the front end of a pair of crucial 1-and-1s, allowing the Golden Grizzlies to tie it up with a 3-point buzzer beater at the end of regulation. The Norse still ended up winning the contest, but it became abundantly clear that poor free throw shooting can cost a team a victory.