The Start of Power Conference Tournaments - Part 2

More Bubble Teams

During last night's post, I covered teams hovering near the bubble whose conference tournaments will end on the 14th. Today, I'll be looking at the teams from conferences that won't punch their automatic bid until Selection Sunday. Without further ado, let's take a look:

Atlantic 10

Locks - Dayton

Richmond - 24-7 (14-4 A10)

This is another team that's right on the cut-line. Some think that they'll have to get the automatic bid to secure their spot, but I am not of that sentiment. They have a 6-6 mark against the top 2 quads, and a 3-4 record vs quad 1, both of which are better than most of their bubble counterparts. I think Richmond only has to win at least one quad 2 game in the A10 tournament, but getting to the finals should all but secure their spot in the big dance. Go one and done, however, and things look iffy.

Saint Louis - 23-8 (12-6 A10)

Not Rhode Island, not VCU, but Saint Louis has the next best odds of getting an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. Sure, it's a long shot, but they have a chance! Assuming the Bilikens beat whomever faces them in the conference quarterfinals, odds are that they will face Dayton for the opportunity at a resume-building win. It's not completely out of the question either, as Saint Louis pushed the Flyers to overtime at home and only lost by 6 in Dayton. With that win, the Bilikens would have a 3-5 record against quad 1, which would then include a neutral court affair over Dayton and road wins over Richmond and Rhode Island. It won't be Rhode Island and VCU (unless one of them wins the automatic bid), but there's a slight chance that the Atlantic 10 still sends 2 teams to join Dayton in the big dance.

SEC

Locks - Kentucky, Auburn

Florida - 19-12 (11-7 SEC)

The Gators are essentially a lock, and would have been had they not blown the game against Kentucky. The only way I can see them not making the tournament would be if there were to lose their first SEC tourney match-up to either Georgia or Ole Miss, and even then this squad is likely safe. Win that game, and they're through. Win more, and Florida can start making a case for a good seed in the NCAA Tournament.

LSU - 21-10 (12-6 SEC)

I know what you're thinking: why is LSU not a lock? The answer is frankly quite simple. When looking at the Tigers' resume, who have they beaten? Their best win is either at home against Florida, who's likely to be a high single-digit seed, or at Texas, who's on the bubble. Most of their quad 1 contests away from home have been losses, even to teams a bit below the bubble. I think it's more important for them, than others may think, to win at least one game in the SEC tournament to assure themselves that they'll be dancing. If not, the committee may rear its ugly head on Sunday.

Mississippi St. - 20-11 (11-7 SEC)

The Bulldogs are still a longshot to reach the big dance, but good news for them is that they have a bracket that allows them to make up some ground. With only two quad 1 wins (compared to 7 losses), Mississippi St. needs some more resume-defining wins. Their first matchup will presumably be against Florida, who the Bulldogs have already beaten on the road this season. Win that and the Bulldogs are probably still on the outside looking in, but they would have a chance against Kentucky (provided the Wildcats don't go one and done). If Mississippi St. reaches the SEC finals by defeating Kentucky, they should hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

Arkansas - 19-12 (7-11 SEC)

The Razorbacks have a profile which will be extremely difficult for the committee to evaluate. On the surface, their resume is not good enough, but Isaiah Joe, one of the top shooting guards, was injured for five games, all of which they lost. Three of those five losses (vs. Auburn, at Missouri, vs. Mississippi St.) came in overtime or by a single point. The committee may choose to discount those close losses without their star player, but they haven't exactly been super impressive with him back: the Razorbacks have gone 3-2, winning the home games over Missouri, Tennessee, and LSU, but losing the road contests against Georgia and Texas A&M. If Arkansas wants to push for an at-large bid, they must win at least 3 games to show that they're a different team with Joe back, and to improve their paltry 6-12 record vs quads 1 and 2. Anything short and they'll be in the NIT.

American

Locks - N/A

Houston - 23-8 (13-5 AAC)

Despite being a projected 7-seed in many mock brackets, I don't think Houston is a lock to dance. They have a 2-5 record vs quad 1, and having your best wins at South Carolina and Wichita St. don't exactly scream surefire tournament team. They are, however, looking more comfortable than most of the bubble. As long as they don't suffer a bad loss in the AAC tourney, the Cougars will be going dancing, but maybe a higher seed than they would've liked.

Wichita St. - 23-8 (11-7 AAC)

The Shockers are really good at maintaining the status quo. While normally that's a good thing, that's not so great for a team trying to receive an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Wichita St. wins the games it's supposed to win, and loses the games it's supposed to lose. Like Houston, their quad 1 record is 2-5, with wins at Oklahoma St. and UConn. For what it's worth, both of those wins are looking better by the day, and Wichita St. is still yet to suffer a quad 3 or 4 loss (worst loss is at Temple), but the Shockers' resume still needs some more oomph to it. They can add some oomph to it if they win over Cincinnati in the American tournament, but I have a hard time seeing Wichita St. getting an at-large bid if they lose at the hands of the Bearcats for a 3rd time. They do have a very reasonable shot at an NCAA Tournament berth should they finally beat Cincy.

Cincinnati - 20-10 (13-5 AAC)

It's a bit difficult to see where the Bearcats stand right now: even though Cincinnati is in the majority of projected brackets, they also are the top seed in the American, so many people have them in as an automatic bid (myself included). They have a poor 2-6 quad 1 record, but their wins (vs. Houston and at Wichita St.) are better than those of the Shockers. What hurts the Bearcats more, however, are their 4 quad 3 losses, which more or less overshadow their perfect 7-0 record vs quad 2. They'll have to beat Wichita St. (in an elimination game for both teams) to have any shot of an at-large bid, and even then Cincinnati might need to get the auto-bid.

Memphis - 21-10 (10-8 AAC)

After being projected as a preseason top 15 team, the Tigers have immensely disappointed. Not only are they not a top 25 team, but they're also not even on the right side of the bubble. Like every team in the American listed above, Memphis has just two quad 1 wins, and like Houston and Wichita St, they have five quad 1 losses. Also unfortunate for Memphis is that they have three quad 3 losses, but theirs are nowhere near as bad as Cincinnati's. Luckily for the Tigers, they caught a good bracket which allows them to potentially elevate themselves back into the projected field. If Memphis defeats Tulsa and Houston on the way to the AAC tourney finals, they can squeeze into the tournament field. Falling short of picking up a couple good wins in the conference tourney and they'll certainly be playing in the NIT instead.

Big Ten

Locks - Michigan St, Maryland, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Michigan, Penn State, Iowa, Illinois

Rutgers - 20-11 (11-9 Big Ten)

The Scarlet Knights have an extremely polarizing resume: a win over Michigan gives them very high odds at a single digit seed, but a loss will force them to sweat it out on Selection Sunday. Even with the clutch overtime win at Purdue, Rutgers only has two wins away from home all season. The committee's standard has been three wins away from home to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament, so Rutgers isn't safe despite wins over Seton Hall, Wisconsin, Penn St, and Maryland. They kept coming close to beating good teams on the road, but never did until Purdue, who's still (for now) not a projected tournament team. With at least one win, Rutgers will be a good seed in the big dance. Lose to Michigan, however, and they could be anywhere from a 10-seed to out of the tournament with their only wins away from home coming at Nebraska and at Purdue in OT.

Indiana - 19-12 (9-11 Big Ten)

The Hoosiers have one job: don't lose to Nebraska. Win and they're most likely in. Lose and things get interesting. Indiana doesn't have a bad loss yet, but they struggle to win away from home, like Rutgers. Their situation isn't quite as dire, as they have neutral court victories over UConn and Notre Dame, as well as road wins over Nebraska and Minnesota. A 4-10 quad 1 record doesn't look too impressive, but keep in mind that wins over Iowa and Penn St. technically qualify as quad 2. Assuming Indiana wins against Nebraska, they'll be in the field with a few spots to spare.

Purdue - 16-15 (9-11 Big Ten)

For all of the power conference teams with mediocre records that still have a shot to dance, Purdue is the greatest offender. The committee has never given an at-large berth to a team with worse than a .533 winning percentage (Purdue is currently at .516), so the Boilermakers have work to do. Good news for them is by being in the Big Ten, every game is an opportunity to pick up a big win to boost their resume. As the conference is so strong this year, they might be able to squeeze in with an 18-16 (.529) record. With a win over Ohio St. and Michigan St. (who the Boilermakers already beat by 29) in the conference tournament, Purdue would make a very convincing case for an at-large bid with an 18-16 record that would boast 6 quad 1 wins, which would include wins away from home against Indiana, Iowa, and the aforementioned Buckeyes and Spartans. Going 2-1 in the Big Ten tourney is far from a guaranteed shot in the big dance, for they might need to win three in the tournament, or there's a very real possibility that 16 losses is too many for the committee to accept as an at-large.

The Start of Power Conference Tournaments

Bubble Teams Galore

As the first wave of conference tournaments come to a close, the next wave of tournaments get underway. This includes all of the major conferences, and with that comes a lot of bubble teams trying to make a case for their at-large candidacy. Without further ado, let's dive into each team's path to an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament:

Big 12

Locks - Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma

Texas - 19-12 (9-9 Big 12)

The Longhorns went on an unexpected tear to play their way from double digit spots out of the tournament to in, according to most mock brackets. Then they lost at home to Oklahoma St. by 22 points, killing the momentum they acquired from their 5-game win streak. They are squarely on the bubble, and can prove that they belong in the tournament by winning against fellow bubble team, Texas Tech, on Thursday. This will likely be an elimination game for both teams, so Texas is probably out if they lose. Win and odds are that they're in, but they might need to win against Kansas in the semis to erase any doubts.

Texas Tech - 18-13 (9-9 Big 12)

The Red Raiders have largely the same situation as Texas: they're right on the bubble due to a poor 3-10 record vs quad 1 (Longhorns have a slightly better 5-8 showing), and a mere 10-13 vs the top 3 quads. The only thing different is that Texas Tech is on its way out of the bracket and Texas was trying to make its way in. If they lose against Texas they're out, no questions asked.  If the Red Raiders do win, that might be enough to push them back into the field, but they'll be more reliant than the Longhorns on winning against Kansas to secure a spot in the tournament field.

Oklahoma St. - 17-14 (7-11 Big 12)

The Cowboys have quietly amassed a fringe at-large profile, and they have the opportunity in the conference tournament to make a very realistic case for an at-large bid. They are only 3-9 against quad 1, and 14-14 vs the top 3 quads, but both of those marks are better than Texas Tech, who's still in the majority of mock brackets (not in mine, however). Oklahoma St. will not make the tournament today, but if they beat Iowa St. and then Kansas, things could get interesting. The Cowboys may still need a 3rd win to get an at-large berth, but a win over Kansas alone gives Oklahoma St. a chance to launch itself into the projected field.

Big East

Locks - Creighton, Seton Hall, Villanova, Butler, Providence

Marquette - 18-12 (8-10 Big East)

Just a few weeks ago, the Golden Eagles were projected as a 6-seed, and arguably the 4th best team in the Big East. They are still in the tournament as of today, but there is a small chance that the committee looks at their losing streak as of late and omits them. Their wins are most likely too good for them to not make the tournament, but they should at least be competitive against Seton Hall to assure themselves that they'll be going dancing. If not, the Golden Eagles have to question whether they'll really hear their name called.

Xavier - 19-12 (8-10 Big East)

A heartbreaking loss to Butler (on Kamar Baldwin's game winning 3) puts the Musketeers in a bit of a precarious position. Their resume is very similar to Texas Tech's: only 3 quad 1 wins, double-digit quad one losses, and no losses outside of the top two quads. This team is also right on the bubble, and a loss to DePaul probably pushes them outside the projected field. With a win, they get a chance to defeat Villanova and solidify themselves in the tournament, rather than leaving it up to chance.

ACC

Locks - Florida St, Duke, Louisville, Virginia

North Carolina St. - 19-12 (10-10 ACC)

There is perhaps no resume which is more bubbly than that of the Wolfpack. They have a respectable 4-5 quad 1 record, which includes wins over Duke and at UVA, but they also have two quad 3 losses. They must not suffer another one at the hands of Pittsburgh if NC State wants to go dancing. Win that and they get to play Duke to all but punch their ticket no the NCAA Tournament. Lose that game though, and NC St. is looking at a near 50/50 shot to make the tourney.

Pac-12

Locks - Oregon, Colorado, Arizona, USC

Arizona St. - 20-11 (11-7 Pac-12)

The Sun Devils are basically locks to make it, but there is a single scenario in which things get dicey: say Washington St. upsets Colorado and then pulls off another upset over Arizona St. The Sun Devils will have suffered their first quad 3 loss with a 9-11 record against the top two quads. Other than that, Arizona St. should be good to go for the NCAA Tournament.

Stanford - 20-11 (9-9 Pac-12)

After losing 7 of 8 and playing their way out of the tournament, Stanford pushed themselves back into the bubble conversation, and back in the tournament according to most mock brackets. If they want to keep their spot in the big dance, they must not lose to California in the first round. That doesn't completely assure they'll be in the tournament, however, but a win over UCLA in the quarterfinals would.

UCLA - 19-12 (12-6 Pac-12)

The Bruins have had an incredible turnaround after starting 8-9, yet they're still right on the cut-line. Assuming they face Stanford in the quarterfinals, one win is all UCLA should need to hear their name called on selection Sunday. If California pulls off the upset, the Bruins will probably need two wins in the Pac-12 tournament to feel secure, and a loss to the Golden Bears (which would be their 3rd quad 3/4 loss of the season) likely pushes them out after climbing their way back in.

To be continued...

A Bubble Team's Greatest Threat

Beware the Bid Thieves

If you're a bubble team or a fan of a bubble team, odds are you'll be sweating it out come Selection Sunday. Besides suffering bad losses, there are other external factors which can hinder a team's ability to dance in March. These consist of how other bubble teams do and how well your marquee victories hold up, but nothing is more threatening to one's at-large chances than a bid thief.

What is a bid thief? A bid thief is a team who would not make the tournament with an at-large bid, but wins their conference tournament, gets the automatic bid, and that conference still has a team that gets an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

An example of a bid thief would be Murray St. in 2019. They won the Ohio Valley's automatic bid, got in the tournament as a 12-seed (last at-large teams were 11-seeds, so they would not have gotten in without the win over Belmont), and Belmont still made the big dance with an at-large bid. Had the Bruins not made the NCAA Tournament, Murray State would not have been a bid thief. 

A team like Northeastern was not a bid thief because no one in the Colonial received an at-large bid. On the other hand, a team like Auburn was not a bid thief because they would've made the tournament even without the automatic bid.

Generally, there's between 1 and 2 bid thieves each year, and usually come from more high-profile mid-major conferences. There are a few candidates for these heartless bid-stealing snobs, so let's take a look:

Potential Bid Thieves Who Have Already Won Their Conference Tournament

Utah St: 26-8 (12-6 MWC)

Having lost to New Mexico in the regular season finale, the Aggies were determined to show that they were still in it to make the NCAA Tournament. They squeezed out single-digit victories over lowly New Mexico and Wyoming en route to the monster that is San Diego St. In one of the greatest conference tournament finals games, Sam Merrill hit a dagger of a 3-pointer with 2.5 seconds to secure a 59-56 victory and clinch a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Following the impressive victory, Utah State has been placed as either a 10 or an 11-seed in mock brackets. While this seems too high to be bid thief territory, the majority of mock brackets had the Aggies barely out going into the game. San Diego State is a lock for a top two seed, so the question is whether Utah St. would have received an at-large bid had they lost. My guess is likely no, but I think they had about a 40% to make the Tournament even if they lost to San Diego St.

Bradley: 23-11 (11-7 MVC)

This case is more akin to the OVC last year, where some team who would not receive an at-large (Murray St.) wins the automatic bid over a team who has at-large potential (Belmont). The Braves didn't actually beat Northern Iowa en route to their automatic bid because UNI lost in the quarterfinals. Bradley is currently projected as a 14-seed in mock brackets, and there is still a chance that the Panthers snag an at-large despite the ugly loss in the quarterfinals of Arch Madness. Should UNI still make the tournament, Bradley would also be one of those revered bid thieves, but I only give them about a 20-25% chance of making the big dance.

Bid Thieves Currently Looming

Wofford: 19-15 (8-10 SoCon)

The Terriers have a chance to go back to the NCAA Tournament by winning tonight over East Tennessee St. That, of course, will be no easy task, but should Wofford pull off the upset, ETSU still has a very realistic chance of dancing. Most mock brackets have the Bucs as an 11-seed, and at least in my bracket, if ETSU is to lose tonight, they will still be in as an at-large bid. Hence, Wofford would become a bid thief. I think the committee will like how the Buccaneers made the most of their most difficult games, including a win at LSU, and place them in the tournament even if they lose. I think ETSU's spot in the big dance is relatively secure so expect to hear their name called on Selection Sunday no matter the result of the game against Wofford.

Southland

The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks boast an impressive 28-3 record, which includes a win at Cameron Indoor. I'm honestly surprised this team isn't being talked about more as a potential at-large candidate, as they have the win at Duke and only one bad loss so far, which was by a single point. Say they lose in the conference tournament final to either Abilene Christian or Nicholls St: the Lumberjacks will have a 29-4 record, a 1-2 record against quad 1, and only 2 bad losses. Their greatest issue is strength of schedule, for over 75% of their contests are against quad 4. However, their resume adds up to a very realistic at-large profile (especially for being projected a 13-seed in some mock brackets) if they lose in the conference tournament. If SFA doesn't get that automatic-bid, don't be surprised if the Southland winner ends up being a bid-stealer.

Pac-12

This is by far the power conference where the idea of a bid thief is most prevalent. There is no dominant team; the top team, Oregon, is a projected 4-seed, and everyone else in the at-large conversation is either a high single-digit seed or on the bubble. While there are 7 teams who probably won't need the Pac-12 tournament crown to go dancing, a few teams below that threshold have shown that they can win games over the top teams in the conference. Oregon St. has beaten 4 of the teams in the at-large conversation, including at Colorado and Stanford, and Washington finally seems to have found their footing, having won at Arizona St. and Arizona in their past two games. The Beavers or the Huskies could potentially go on a run to win the wide-open race for an automatic bid, and if they do, it would come at the expense of another team's at-large berth.

Atlantic 10

Dayton has not lost yet in conference play, but a few teams have come close to beating them. I feel like their undefeated run has a very realistic shot of coming to an end in their next 3 games, and if it does, there are many teams who could claim the crown of 'bid thief.' No one is a lock to make it besides Dayton, but I think Richmond would make it if it found itself in the A10 final, even in the event of a loss. Saint Louis is the most likely bid-stealer in this conference since they pushed the Flyers to overtime and played them close in Dayton. They've also quietly amassed a fringe at-large case assuming they don't get the automatic bid. Other than the Bilikens, Davidson, Duquesne, Rhode Island, VCU, and St. Bonaventure are all pretty decent as well and have potential to win a few games in the A10 Tourney.

American

The AAC easily is the most likely conference to house a bid thief. In fact, I would say there's a solid 75% chance that one does come out of the American. It has the perfect environment for one to sprout: no dominant teams, one projected high single-digit seed, and about 6 teams on or a bit below the bubble who are capable of competing with anyone in the conference. Houston, a projected 8-seed in mock brackets, has already lost to Tulsa, Cincinnati, SMU, Memphis, and UConn. Only Cincinnati has a realistic shot of an at-large, and will have to beat Wichita St. and lose in the finals in order to receive one. There is also a chance that Wichita St. is on the outside looking in, and even with a win over Cincinnati (which is likely going to be an elimination game for both teams), they may still need the American's automatic bid. This same sentiment has even more truth for the teams who almost certainly need the conference tournament crown; such as Tulsa, who won a share of the AAC regular season title; Memphis, who always seems to be among the next four out; and UConn and SMU, who have beaten the higher ranked teams in the conference while being somewhat inconsistent. There's a very high chance that one of these pretty good teams goes on a run, knocks off Houston (or lets someone else knock off the Cougars), and steals the automatic bid. Bubble teams, this is the conference you need to be especially wary of.

The First Fallen Mid-Major Prospect

Northern Iowa Falters Early in Arch Madness

Northern Iowa went into the MVC tourney as the clear best team and the obvious favorite to get the automatic bid. Many people questioned whether UNI would be able to grab an NCAA Tournament bid should they fall short of winning their conference tournament. There were definitely a few teams in the valley who were capable of challenging the Panthers for the title, specifically Loyola Chicago and Indiana State, but I doubt anyone was expecting UNI to be one and done, especially in a blowout loss to a team that they beat by 27 a week before.

After getting blasted at home by Northern Iowa on leap day, Drake was ready to avenge the loss. They started by defeating Illinois St. in the first round to set up the rematch. Like many of UNI's previous contests, the Panthers started out slow. They trailed by 10 at halftime, and by as much as 17 in the first half. While Northern Iowa cut Drake's lead to just 2 points only 4 minutes into the second half, and maintained that small deficit for a few more minutes, the Bulldogs answered with an 18-0 run of their own. UNI suffered a 77-56 defeat, which will go in the books as a quad 3 loss and leaves an ugly final impression on the selection committee.

Have the Panthers done enough to warrant an at-large bid? As they don't play in a major conference, their opportunities to notch marquee victories are obviously fewer. They do have a 4-3 record against the top two quads, which includes a win at Colorado (still really strong today), a close loss on a neutral court to West Virginia, and a neutral Court victory over South Carolina in their non-conference slate.

What they did in conference play was more damaging to their resume. They split their four quad 2 opportunities in the MVC, winning at Missouri St. and Bradley, but lost at Indiana St. and Loyola Chicago, the two most difficult opponents UNI had to face in the valley. To add three quad 3 losses (at Southern Illinois, at Illinois St., and vs. Drake today in Arch Madness) onto their resume, did Northern Iowa truly establish themselves as a step above the rest of the conference? 

While Belmont did get in last year as an at-large without any jaw-dropping victories, they had fewer bad losses and won a larger percentage of their games against the top two quads. It's going to be close, but I predict, as of now, that Northern Iowa will be among the first four out. 

Conference Tournaments are on the Horizon

Who to Look Out For in the Early Conference Tournaments

It’s that time of year again! Selection Sunday is less than two weeks away, which means that conference tournaments are about to start. While most automatic bids are clinched the day before or the day of Selection Sunday (including all power conference tourneys), there are still 12 teams who will receive their NCAA Tournament berth by March 11. These consist of the Atlantic Sun, Big South, Colonial, Horizon, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot League, Southern, Summit and West Coast Conference. Most of these conferences will only send a single team dancing no matter what happens, but I’ll be looking at those teams who could potentially (or certainly) earn an at-large bid among the first conferences to punch their bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Atlantic Sun:

Liberty: 27-4 (13-3 A-Sun)

The Liberty Flames probably need the automatic bid in order to go dancing, but in case they lose in the conference tournament, all hope is not lost. They’ve only had two opportunities against the top two quads all season, which they split. They lost their only Q1 match at LSU, and won their Q2 match-up on a neutral court against Akron. It’s difficult to judge them because they’ve played so few games against decent competition, and a NET ranking in the mid 60s plus their three Q3/4 losses don’t look great either. It is inevitable that they were to pick up some bad losses, however, because the A-Sun only provides Q4 opportunities outside of North Florida, whose contests qualify as quad 3. Luckily for the Flames, they have not lost at home this season, and all they have to do is win 3 consecutive home games in the conference tournament to punch their ticket. It would be amazing to see them make the big dance as an at-large, but Liberty should really just get the auto-bid, earn a 12 seed, and maybe pull off another first-round upset.

Big South: N/A

Colonial: N/A

Horizon: N/A

Missouri Valley:

Northern Iowa: 25-5 (14-4 MVC)

Unlike Liberty, UNI has a realistic shot should they fall short in the conference tournament. There are a lot of things to like about the Panthers’ resume. First, a gaudy top-40 NET ranking should serve them well in the eyes of the selection committee. They also boast a 5-3 record against the top 2 quads, including a win over Colorado in Boulder. That record is misleading, however, as most of their games against Q1 and 2 are in-conference road games against teams outside the top 90 NET. They have two quad 3 losses, which isn’t the end of the world considering how many games of Q3 or worse they have. What’s more concerning Northern Iowa’s tournament prospects is how they fared against the Missouri Valley’s toughest competition away from home. Besides UNI, Loyola Chicago and Indiana St. are the only MVC teams inside the top 100 NET, and the Panthers lost on the road against both of those teams. They did win the conference’s other quad two contests at least, which were at Bradley, Missouri St., and Valpo. Their non-conference victories at Colorado and on a neutral court vs. South Carolina really add to their case for an at-large bid (if necessary). Mock brackets tend to place UNI as either a No. 12 or No. 11 seed. I currently have them as a 12, but above the last two at-larges right now. They might be able to make it if they lose in the MVC final, but I wouldn’t bet on what appears to be 50/50 odds.

Mountain West:

San Diego State: 28-1 (17-1 MWC)

The Aztecs were so close to an undefeated season, but UNLV just had to best them on Feb. 22. Despite that loss, SDSU is fine. Their NET ranking is still 4 and they have very high quality wins away from home. Some are arguing that San Diego State has fallen to a No. 2 seed, but someone hasn’t “taken” it yet from the Aztecs so they should still be on the 1-line. If they don’t win the MWC tourney, SDSU will almost certainly be a 2 seed. Even if they go into the NCAA Tournament with an exceptional 31-1 record, there is a chance that some power conference team like Maryland, Florida State, or Seton Hall wins out until the tournament and takes the final No. 1 seed from the Aztecs. That is not a bad thing by any means, however, because then they would be the No. 2 seed in the West presumably going against top seeded Gonzaga, which sounds more appealing than being the No. 1 seed in the East and having to travel to New York to play some east coast juggernaut. It may not be the worst thing for them if they lose.

Utah State: 23-8 (12-6 MWC)

Before leap day, the general consensus was that the Utah St. Aggies were a few spots above the cut line. Then they lost at New Mexico on Feb. 29. It goes in the books as a quad 3 loss, their second of the season. They are now squarely on the bubble, and currently my last team in the field. They are massively helped by their neutral court wins over Florida and LSU, but they didn’t prove themselves to clearly be the second best team in the Mountain West. They understandably lost both games against San Diego St., but only went 1-2 in Q2 road contests against UNLV, Boise State, and Colorado St. They also have a win at North Texas, which gives them a 4-6 record against the top 2 quads and 2-4 versus Q1. I don’t think they necessarily need to get the auto-bid, but they need to get some meaningful win that adds to their resume. If they can meet Nevada or Colorado State in the conference semis and add another Q2 victory to their resume, that would arguably be enough to get the at-large. If they lose before the MWC final, they’re likely NIT-bound. This team has close to a 50/50 shot to receive an at-large bid, but upsetting SDSU and getting the auto-bid would put an end to the question.

Northeast: N/A

Ohio Valley: N/A

Patriot League: N/A

Southern:

East Tennessee State: 27-4 (16-2 SoCon)

The Buccaneers have amassed an impressive resume, and probably can afford to not win their conference tournament and still make the NCAA Tournament. Like Utah State, they have a marquee win over LSU, except ETSU’s is a true road win. The narrative for most mid-major teams vying for an at-large bid seems to be that their wins don’t outweigh their slew of bad losses. Good news for this ETSU squad is that they only have 1 Q4 loss and no Q3 losses, though some teams have come close. To go along with their win at LSU, the Buccaneers have also won 3 of 4 against the solid SoCon competition of UNC Greensboro and Furman. All of these reasons explain their top 40 NET ranking, which also explains why they’re generally a No. 11 seed in mock brackets, a few spots above the cut line. I also agree that they are at the top of the 11-line, but if they win the auto-bid they should be a No. 10 seed. Even a loss in the conference tourney shouldn’t knock them out of the projected field provided it isn’t a Q4 loss. As recommended for all bubble teams from weaker conferences, getting the auto-bid will be the only way to truly solidify a bid, but this squad is safer than most.

Summit: N/A

West Coast:

Gonzaga: 29-2 (15-1 WCC)

You know the drill by now: Gonzaga is the class of the mid majors once again. It’s not even surprising that they’re projected for yet another No. 1 seed. Their only two losses are on a neutral court vs. Michigan and at BYU, which are not bad by any means. The Zags also have quality wins over the likes of Oregon and Arizona, and are simply dominant in some games, even on the road. As long as they don’t collapse in the conference tournament, this team is getting its 2nd consecutive No. 1 seed.

BYU: 24-7 (13-3 WCC)

The Cougars are getting back to the tournament for the first time in five years; the question is how high will they be seeded. Right now, they’re being slotted for either a No. 5 or a No. 6 seed despite a couple questionable losses, highlighted by their home win over WCC juggernaut Gonzaga. BYU can win away from home too, with a road win over Houston and neutral court victories over UCLA and Utah St. Like the Zags, the Cougars get a triple bye in the conference tournament, and will comfortably in the tournament no matter what happens. Even with a loss right off the bat, I can’t see them getting any worse than maybe a No. 8 seed. If they can beat Gonzaga again, their top 10 NET ranking will only rise, and they can very realistically get a top 4 seed. A No. 6 seed is a safe bet for this squad.

Saint Mary’s: 23-7 (11-5 WCC)

Barring a major collapse and severe oversight by the selection committee, the Gaels are returning to the big dance. They have neutral court wins over Wisconsin and Arizona St. (by 40 points!). They split the season series with BYU, but got demolished by Gonzaga, and have an odd home loss to Santa Clara. All of this amounts to a No. 8 or No. 9 seed (I have them on the 8-line). As long as Saint Mary’s avoids a loss before arriving at BYU, they’ll maintain a single digit seed, but a loss in the first game should only knock them down to a No. 11 seed at the absolute worst. The Gaels have some breathing room, and the West Coast Conference will send 3 teams dancing this year.